The Global Order after Covid19
Stephen M. Walt
Harvard Kennedy School
May 2020
Written for the Institute for Security Policy, Vienna
The COVID19 pandemic is the most disruptive global event since the Great Depression and
World War 2. At least 4.8 million people have been infected in less than six months; more than
300,000 have died, and many more deaths will occur even if effective vaccines or treatments are
eventually developed. The economic costs are staggering: much of the world has fallen into
recession, debt levels are soaring, and future growth prospects have dimmed. It is in some ways
the first fully global crisis in human history, one from which no country can remain aloof.
Yet despite these far-reaching effects, the current pandemic will not transform the essential
nature of world politics. The territorial state will remain the basic building-block of international
affairs, nationalism will remain a powerful political force, and the major powers will continue to
compete for influence in myriad ways. Global institutions, transnational networks, and assorted
non-state actors will still play important roles, of course, but the present crisis will not produce a
dramatic and enduring increase in global governance or significantly higher levels of
international cooperation.
Instead, Covid19 is more likely to reinforce divisive trends that were underway before the first
case was detected. In particular, it will accelerate a retreat from globalization, raise new barriers
to international trade, investment, and travel, and give both democratic and non-democratic
governments greater power over their citizens’ lives. Global economic growth will be lower
than it would have been had the pandemic not occurred.
Relations among the major powers will
continue the downward trend that was apparent before the pandemic struck.
In short, the post-Covid world will be less open, less free, less prosperous, and more competitive
than the world many people expected to emerge only a few years ago.
A Less Open World
After the Cold War, the United States led a sustained effort to spread democracy, open markets,
the rule of law, and other liberal values as far as possible, in order to create a truly global liberal
order.
In April 2020, the IMF forecast that the world economy would shrink by roughly 3 percent in 2020. See
International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook, April 2020: The Great Lockdown,” at
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020
