Citation: Tunde, O.L.; Adewole, O.O.;
Alobid, M.; Sz˝ucs, I.; Kassouri, Y.
Sources and Sectoral Trend Analysis
of CO
2
Emissions Data in Nigeria
Using a Modified Mann-Kendall and
Change Point Detection Approaches.
Energies 2022, 15, 766. https://
doi.org/10.3390/en15030766
Academic Editors: Luis Hernández-
Callejo and João Fernando Pereira
Gomes
Received: 22 October 2021
Accepted: 10 December 2021
Published: 21 January 2022
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Article
Sources and Sectoral Trend Analysis of CO
2
Emissions Data in
Nigeria Using a Modified Mann-Kendall and Change Point
Detection Approaches
Ogundele Lasun Tunde
1
, Okunlola Oluyemi Adewole
2,
* , Mohannad Alobid
3
, István Sz ˝ucs
3
and Yacouba Kassouri
4
1
Department of Physics, University of Medical Sciences, Ondo 351104, Nigeria; logundele@unimed.edu.ng
2
Department of Mathematical and Computer Science, University of Medical Sciences, Ondo 351104, Nigeria
3
Faculty of Economics and Business, Institute of Applied Economic Sciences, University of Debrecen,
H-4032 Debrecen, Hungary; mohannad.alobid@econ.unideb.hu (M.A.); istvan.szucs@econ.unideb.hu (I.S.)
4
Department of Economics and Finance, Nisantasi University, Istanbul 25370, Turkey;
yacouba.kassouri@nisantasi.edu.tr
* Correspondence: ookunlola@unimed.edu.ng
Abstract:
In Nigeria, the high dependence on fossil fuels for energy generation and utilization in
various sectors of the economy has resulted in the emission of a large quantity of carbon dioxide
(CO
2
), which is one of the criteria gaseous pollutants that is frequently encountered in the environ-
ment. The high quantity of CO
2
has adverse implications on human health and serious damaging
effects on the environment. In this study, multi-decade (1971–2014) CO
2
-emissions data for Nigeria
were obtained from the World Development Indicator (WDI). The data were disaggregated into
various emission sources: gaseous fuel consumption (GFC), liquid fuel consumption (LFC), solid fuel
consumption (SFC), transport (TRA), electricity and heat production (EHP), residential buildings and
commercial and public services (RSCPS), manufacturing industries and construction (MINC), and
other sectors excluding residential buildings and commercial and public services (OSEC). The analy-
sis was conducted for a sectorial trend using a rank-based non-parametric modified Mann–Kendall
(MK) statistical approach and a change point detection method. The results showed that the CO
2
emissions from TRA were significantly high, followed by LFC. The GFC, LFC, EHP, and OSEC had
a positive Sen’s slope, while SFC, TRA, and MINC had a negative Sen’s slope. The trend analysis
indicated multiple changes for TRA and OSEC, while other sources had a change point at a particular
year. These results are useful for knowledge of CO
2
-emission sources in Nigeria and for future
understanding of the trend of its emission for proper environmental planning. The severe effects of
CO
2
on the atmospheric environment of Nigeria may be worsened in the future due to some major
sources such as transportation services and electricity generation that are inevitable for enviable
standard of living in an urban setting.
Keywords: CO
2
; emission sources; WDI data; trend analysis; Mann-Kendall
1. Introduction
Globally, carbon dioxide (CO
2
) is one of the common environmental pollutants, and
it accounts for more than 70% of the greenhouse effects. It also has varieties of adverse
effects on human health and environmental implications [
1
]. It affects the amount of solar
radiation that penetrates through the atmosphere and reaches the surface of the earth
as well as outgoing radiation from the surface of Earth. The potential atmospheric and
ecological implications of CO
2
, among others, consist in global warming, irregular rainfall
pattern, over-flooding, extreme weather phenomena, sea-level rises, alterations in crop
growth, and disruptions to aquatic water systems. The excessive accumulation of CO
2
in
the atmosphere alters the atmospheric radiation budget either by the absorption or emission
Energies 2022, 15, 766. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15030766 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/energies
