1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, and Karolina Hird
April 5, 4:30 pm ET
Russian forces continued to reposition to continue their invasion in eastern and
southern Ukraine, having abandoned the attack on Kyiv. They have largely completed
their withdrawal from the Kyiv area and are reportedly redeploying some of the
withdrawn combat forces from Belarus to Russia. Ukrainian forces are moving to regain
control over segments of the state border in Chernihiv, having already done so in Kyiv and Zhytomyr
Oblasts. Russian troops are pulling back toward Russia along the Sumy axis as well, but it is not yet
clear if they intend to retreat all the way back to the border or will try to hold some forward positions
on the Sumy axis.
Russia has not yet committed forces withdrawn from the Battle of Kyiv back into the
fighting in eastern Ukraine. Russian reinforcements continuing the drive southeast
from Izyum toward Slovyansk are from elements of 1st Guards Tank Army units that had
been in the Kharkiv-Sumy area. Russian units that retreated from Kyiv will not likely regain
combat effectiveness for some time, and it is not clear that the Russians intend to return them to the
fight soon. That said, an unconfirmed Ukrainian military intelligence report suggests that Moscow
could soon send the 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, a unit that
reportedly committed war crimes in Bucha, into the fight in eastern Ukraine in the hopes that guilty
members of that brigade and witnesses of its war crimes are killed in combat with Ukrainian forces.
Belgorod continues to emerge as the primary concentration area for Russian forces
regrouping and refitting after their retreat from Kyiv and in preparation for onward
movement to their home stations or to join the fighting in the east. Elements of the Central
Military District pulling back from Chernihiv Oblast are reportedly on their way to Belgorod.
Their
final destination is not yet known.
The Battle of Mariupol continues, with Russian forces continuing to pound the city using
artillery and airpower. The constrained information environment in Mariupol prevents us from
assessing concrete changes in control of terrain, but Ukrainian forces appear to be sustaining organized
resistance in parts of the city.
Russian offensive operations southeast from Izyum toward Slovyansk continued on a
small scale and made limited progress. Russia has not yet attempted to mass large
concentrations of forces on this axis but continues instead to send individual battalion tactical groups
to advance on their own.
Key Takeaways
• The withdrawal of Russian forces from around Kyiv is nearing completion.
• Russia has not yet introduced forces withdrawn from western Ukraine into the
fight in the east.
• Ukrainian forces continued to put up organized resistance in parts of Mariupol.
• Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations on the Izyum-Slovyansk
axis.
We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-
covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are
assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of
these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on
