1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Kateryna Stepanenko, Mason Clark, and George Barros
June 4, 6:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Ukrainian forces are successfully slowing down Russian operations to encircle
Ukrainian positions in Luhansk Oblast as well as Russian frontal assaults in
Severodonetsk through prudent and effective local counterattacks in Severodonetsk and
their defense of the western Siverskyi Donets riverbank. Ukrainian officials reported on June
3 that Ukrainian defenders pushed back against Russian advances in Severodonetsk and are actively
hindering Russian advances on Lysychansk from the southwest.
Luhansk Oblast Administration Head
Serhiy Haidai disagreed with the UK Defense Ministry forecast on June 3 that Russian forces will seize
the remaining 10% of the oblast in the next two weeks, claiming that Ukrainian forces have enough
reinforcements and equipment to conduct further counterattacks and defend their positions.
Haidai
noted that Russian forces wrongfully believe in their own successes, enabling Ukrainian defenders to
inflict high losses against unsuspecting Chechen units. Pro-Russian milblogger Voenkor Kotyenok Z
claimed that Russian forces are unlikely to break through Ukrainian defenses in Lysychansk from
Severodonetsk (through continued frontal assaults and an opposed crossing of the Siverskyi Donetsk
River) and will likely need to complete the drive from Popasna if they hope to capture Lysychansk.
Voenkor Kotyenok Z claimed that Ukrainian forces could prevent Russian river crossings from
Severodonetsk and highlighted that Russian forces have not yet secured access to two key highways to
Lysychansk.
The Ukrainian government and military are furthermore discussing the battle of
Severodonetsk in increasingly confident terms and are likely successfully blunting the
Russian military’s major commitment of reserves to the grinding battle for the city. While
Russian forces may still be able to capture Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and Ukrainian forces are
likely more degraded than Haidai’s statements imply, Ukrainian defenses remain strong in this pivotal
theater. The Russian military has concentrated all of its available resources on this single battle to make
only modest gains. The Ukrainian military contrarily retains the flexibility and confidence to not only
conduct localized counterattacks elsewhere in Ukraine (such as north of Kherson) but conduct effective
counterattacks into the teeth of Russian assaults in Severodonetsk that reportedly retook 20% of the
city in the last 24 hours. The Ukrainian government’s confidence in directly stating its forces can hold
Severodonetsk for more than two weeks and willingness to conduct local counterattacks, rather than
strictly remaining on the defensive, is a marked shift from Ukrainian statements as recently as May 28
that Ukrainian forces might withdraw from Severodonetsk to avoid encirclement.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated on June 3 that Russia will continue its
“special military operation” in Ukraine until Russia achieves all of its objectives.
Peskov
noted that Russia has already “liberated” many settlements since the start of the operation. Kremlin
officials have begun steadily returning to their original claims about the successes of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine in contrast to previous statements in late May explaining the slow pace of the war.
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu also claimed on June 3 that Russian forces are adopting new
unspecified tasks to accelerate the progress of the war.
The Kremlin is likely setting conditions to
announce some sort of victory in eastern Ukraine while preparing for a protracted war. The Kremlin
has not abandoned its maximalist political goals for Ukraine even though it has been forced to revise
downward its immediate military objectives.
