1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2
Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Mason Clark, and George Barros
June 2, 6:15pm ET
Russian forces continued to make incremental, grinding, and costly progress in eastern
Ukraine on June 2. Russian troops continued operations to capture Severodonetsk and further
operations to capture Lysychansk. Russian military leadership will likely use the capture of these two
cities to claim they have “liberated” all of Luhansk Oblast before turning to Donetsk Oblast but Russian
forces are unlikely to have the forces necessary to take substantial territory in Donetsk Oblast after
suffering further losses around Severodonetsk. Russian forces are evidently limited by terrain in the
Donbas and will continue to face challenges crossing the Siverskyi Donets River to complete the
encirclement of Severodonetsk-Lysychansk and make further advances westward of Lyman towards
Slovyansk via Raihorodok.
1
Russian military leadership continues to experience complications with sufficient force
generation and maintaining the morale of mobilized personnel. The Ukrainian General Staff
reported that the Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) 1st Army Corps, under Russia’s 8th Combined
Arms Army, is conducting forced mobilization in occupied areas of Donetsk Oblast.
2
Russian forced
mobilization is highly unlikely to generate meaningful combat power and will exacerbate low morale
and poor discipline in Russian and proxy units. The 113th Regiment of the DNR posted a video appeal
to Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 2 wherein forcibly-mobilized soldiers complain they have
spent the entire war on the frontline in Kherson without food or medicine, and that mobilization
committees did not conduct requisite medical screenings and admitted individuals whose medical
conditions should have disqualified them from service.
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Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate
additionally released an intercepted phone conversation wherein DNR soldiers similarly complained
that physically unfit individuals were forced into service and that mobilized units are experiencing mass
drunkenness and general disorder.
4
Russian forces are additionally struggling to successfully rotate
servicemen in and out of combat. Spokesperson for the Odesa Military Administration Maksym
Marchenko stated that 30 to 40% of Russian personnel that rotated out of Ukraine refused to return,
forcing Russian commanders to send unprepared and unmotivated units back into combat.
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This is
consistent with complaints made by DNR servicemen that rotation practices are contributing to poor
morale and dissatisfaction within units that have been forcibly mobilized.
6
Russian occupation authorities continue to face challenges establishing permanent
societal control in newly occupied Ukrainian territories. The Ukrainian Resistance Center
reported that Russian occupational administrations “are [only] created on paper” and are incapable of
controlling local populations, enforcing the use of the Russian ruble, or conducting bureaucratic
processes.
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The Ukrainian Resistance Center noted that Ukrainian civilians welcome partisan activity
that systematically sabotages Russian occupation rule.
Key Takeaways
Russian operations to advance on Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west
of Lyman continue to make little progress and are unlikely to do so in the coming
days, as Russian forces continue to prioritize Severodonetsk at the expense of
other axes of advance.
