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俄罗斯进攻性战役评估，2022年5月29日

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时间：2023-06-20

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1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Karolina Hird, Mason Clark, and George Barros
May 29, 5:30 pm ET
New reports confirmed that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful limited
counterattack near the Kherson-Mykolaiv oblast border on May 28, forcing Russian
forces onto the defensive. This Ukrainian counterattack is likely intended to disrupt Russian efforts
to establish strong defensive positions along the Southern Axis. While the Ukrainian counterattack does
not appear likely to retake substantial territory in the near term, it will likely disrupt Russian operations
and potentially force Russia to deploy reinforcements to the Kherson region, which is predominantly
held by sub-standard units. Ukrainian counterattacks may additionally slow Russian efforts to
consolidate administrative control of occupied southern Ukraine.
1
Russian forces continued to assault Severodonetsk on May 29 but did not make any
confirmed advances; Russian progress in intense urban combat will likely be slow. The
Russian campaign in eastern Ukraine—which previously aimed to capture the entirety of Luhansk and
Donetsk Oblasts—is now focused almost entirely on Severodonetsk. Russian troops are unlikely to be
able to conduct multiple simultaneous operations and will likely further deprioritize advances southeast
of Izyum and west of Lyman in favor of concentrating available forces on Severodonetsk in the coming
days.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces continued attempts to take full control of Severodonetsk.
• Russian forces continued offensives southeast of Izyum but did not make any
confirmed advances toward Slovyansk.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations to cut Ukrainian ground lines of
communication (GLOCs) northeast of Bakhmut and appear unlikely to attempt to
directly assault the city.
• The Ukrainian counteroffensive in northwestern Kherson Oblast has forced
Russian troops to take up defensive positions and will likely disrupt Russian efforts
to effectively dig in and consolidate control of occupied areas along the Southern
Axis.
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