1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 1
Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 1, 3:00 pm EST
Russian forces are completing the reinforcement and resupply of their troops north and west of
Kyiv and launching an envelopment of the capital likely aimed at encircling and ultimately
capturing it. This effort will likely accelerate in the next 24-48 hours. Russian operations against Kyiv
are Moscow’s main effort. Russian troops are also undertaking three supporting efforts, one to seize Kharkiv,
one to take Mariupol and secure the “land bridge” connecting Rostov-on-Don to Crimea, and one to secure
Kherson and set conditions for a drive west toward Mykolayiv and Odesa. The three supporting operations are
active, with the operation against Mariupol making the most progress in the last 24 hours.
The Russian attack on Kyiv likely consists of a main effort aimed at enveloping and ultimately
encircling the city from the west and a supporting effort along the axes from Chernihiv and Sumy
to encircle Kyiv from the east. The long Russian column of combat and logistics vehicles north of Kyiv is
likely setting conditions for the envelopment to the west, although it could also support attacks directly into the
city from the positions Russian forces maintain in Kyiv’s northwestern outskirts. Russian forces are more likely
to pursue the envelopment/encirclement than a direct assault into the city.
The Russian military has continued using area-attack weapons in the city of Kharkiv,
dramatically increasing the damage to civilian infrastructure and civilian casualties. Russian
forces have not reportedly attempted large-scale ground operations against Kharkiv in the last 24 hours but are
likely instead using air, missile, and artillery bombardment to set conditions for a renewed ground attack
sometime in the next 24-48 hours. Russian ground forces appear likely to conduct another frontal assault on
Kharkiv from the northeast rather than attempt to envelop or encircle the city.
Russian forces in the south appear to be holding their positions south of Zaprozhya, fighting to
reduce Ukrainian positions in Kherson and seize that city, and encircling Mariupol to set
conditions to seize it. Russian operations in the south do not appear to pose an imminent danger to Odesa
within the next 24 hours. A Russian drive north through or near Zaprozhya to cut off Ukrainian forces fighting
along the line of contact also appears very unlikely in the next 24-72 hours.
Russian troops claim to have encircled Mariupol and have reportedly entered the city of Kherson
in the south.
Russian forces are receiving needed supplies and reinforcements that may facilitate much more rapid and
effective operations in the coming 24-72 hours. The Russian effort around Kyiv remains poorly organized,
however, with elements of many different battalions combined into what seem to be ad hoc groupings rather
than operating under standing regiment or brigade headquarters. The initial errors in the Russian force
composition and organization in Belarus and western Russia that ISW has previously reported on, which
contributed to Russian logistical and operational failures around Kyiv, will be difficult to remedy quickly and will
likely continue to cause friction and reduce the effectiveness of Russian operations even as supply issues are
addressed and reinforcements come into the fight.
It remains too early to evaluate the likely effective combat
power the added Russian troops will bring.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces are setting conditions to envelop Kyiv from the west and attempting to open
up a new axis of attack from the east that would let them encircle the capital. It is unclear
if Russia has sufficient combat power to complete such an encirclement and hold it against
Ukrainian counter-attacks.
• Russian forces will likely launch a renewed ground offensive to seize Kharkiv following
the air/artillery/missile attack it has been conducting in the past 24 hours.
• Russian and Russian proxy forces will likely solidify the “land bridge” linking Rostov-on-
Don with Crimea, allowing Russian forces to move more rapidly from Rostov to reinforce
efforts further west.
