Institute for the Study of War &
The Critical Threats Project 2023
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 17, 2023
Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, Madison Williams, Layne Philipson,
George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
January 17, 8:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced on January 17 that he will
implement Russian President Vladimir Putin’s directive to conduct large-scale military
reforms between 2023-2026 to expand Russia’s conventional armed forces, likely in
preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine and also to set conditions to build a
significantly stronger Russian military quickly. Shoigu stated that Putin ordered Russian
authorities to increase the number of Russian military personnel to 1.5 million (from the current 1.35
million). Shoigu outlined that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) will institute unspecified “large-
scale changes” in the composition, complement, and administrative divisions of the Russian Armed
Forces between 2023-2026.
Shoigu noted that Russia also needs to strengthen the key structural
components of the Russian Armed Forces. Shoigu announced that Russia will reestablish the Moscow
and Leningrad military districts, form a new army corps in Karelia (on the Finnish border), form new
self-sufficient force groupings in occupied Ukraine, and form 12 new maneuver divisions.
Shoigu
added that Russia needs to increase its capabilities to adequately prepare its forces by developing more
training grounds and increasing the number of trainers and specialists. Shoigu first foreshadowed
aspects of this reform at the Russian MoD Collegium meeting on December 21 when he proposed that
Russia form two new airborne assault divisions, three new motorized rifle divisions, and reform seven
existing brigades of the Northern Fleet and Western, Central, and Eastern Military districts into seven
new motorized rifle divisions while expanding five existing naval infantry brigades into five naval
infantry divisions.
It appears that Shoigu did not include the reformation of five naval infantry brigades
into divisions in his January 17 statement. It is unclear if that part of the plan has been dropped.
These reforms demonstrate Russia’s intent to reform the Russian military to conduct large-scale
conventional warfighting in general and not just for the current war against Ukraine, as ISW has
previously assessed.
It is unclear if the Russian military will be able to grow as Shoigu described within
three years.
Russia can nominally form new divisions but it remains unclear if Russia can generate
enough forces to fully staff them to their doctrinal end strengths amid an ongoing war. Shoigu made
previous announcements about Russian military reforms that never came to fruition, such as in May
2022 when he called for the formation of 12 new Western Military District (WMD) units of unspecified
echelon by the end of 2022 and for the Russian MoD to recruit 100,000 reservists in August 2021.
Russia has previously faced challenges with fully staffing existing brigades and regiments, lacking
sufficient trainers, and fully forming one new division it announced in 2020 before the start of the 2022
invasion of Ukraine.
The restructuring of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division (8th Combined Arms
Army) took over a year.
Russia will also continue to face economic problems, which may continue to
strain the Russian military command’s ability to supply its forces.
Russia’s ability to generate large-scale rapid change in its military capacity depends on President
Vladimir Putin’s willingness to redirect large portions of the federal budget to a military buildup and
putting Russia on something like a war footing for several years. There are signs that Putin might be
willing to do so. Reform and expansion on the scale Shoigu outlined will not happen in time to affect
