DAVID A. SHLAPAK, CHAD J. R. OHLANDT, JON SCHMID
Measuring China’s
Science and Technology
Progress
A Framework for Assessing Advances
Affecting Military Capability
T
he generic life cycle of a new military capability passes through phases from basic research
to operational deployment (Figure 1), incorporating the prototyping phase, moving
through acquisition, and concluding with the fielding phase.
1
As this process advances, a
competitor’s science and technology (S&T) development efforts become increasingly vis-
ible because they result in observable, physical artifacts, such as prototypes, test infrastructure, and
production lines.
2
By contrast, the basic research
and applied research and develop-
ment (R&D) phases—and, to some
extent, the prototyping phase—
represent periods in capability devel-
opment in which measurable indica-
tors of a competitor’s S&T interests
might be relatively weak with a poor
signal-to-noise ratio. What’s more,
advanced countries, such as China
and the United States, might have so
many R&D activities underway that
it might be difficult to find the needle
in the R&D haystack. The United
States might get very little early warn-
ing of the specific S&T programs
that China intends to use to create
important new military capabilities—
C O R P O R A T I O N
Research Report
KEY FINDINGS
■ RAND Corporation researchers developed a framework that can
measure science and technology (S&T) progress of foreign com-
peting nations to help determine what should warrant the atten-
tion of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) decisionmakers.
■ By progressing in a structured and transparent way—from the
subject country’s highest-level strategic goals to the critical
technologies supporting its military capabilities to achieve those
goals—the four phases of the framework identify requirements,
screening S&T activity, comparing baseline historical progress,
and supporting decisionmakers.
■ A prototype of the framework, which was applied to three case
studies in China, demonstrated that it can generate timely and
useful insights.
■ When integrated into DoD’s analytic process, the framework
would provide an early warning of a nation’s militarily critical S&T
programs for multiple communities.
