DECEMBER 2024
How to Support Ukraine
Peace Will Require Ukrainian Strength
By Max Bergmann
The war and the world are turning against Ukraine.
The conict between Russia and Ukraine has become a war of attrition, with the side that can tilt
the manpower and armament balance in its favor having the advantage. While Ukraine mobilized
heroically, and the West has provided substantial military support that has helped preserve Ukrainian
democracy, Ukrainian mobilization and Western defense industrial production have not ramped up
suciently. As a result, despite its fumbles in the initial invasion, Russia has found its footing, created
a manpower pipeline, and built up its industrial capacity to ght a long war. It has leveraged its
immense Soviet-era stockpiles of military equipment, and China, Iran, and North Korea have provided
crucial support—including lethal military aid, dual-use technoloy to ramp up defense production,
and now even soldiers for the front lines. The war has tilted in Russia’s favor, and Russia is pressing its
armaments and manpower advantage relentlessly.
Russia now sees a light at the end of the tunnel of this attritional war, and that light just got brighter
with the election of Donald Trump. During the election period, President Trump was clear about
his skepticism regarding aid to Ukraine. He has said that he would seek to end the war through
negotiations, but the prospect for talks and a negotiated settlement in the near term is unlikely—not
because of Ukrainian reticence, but because Russia has shown no interest in a negotiated settlement to
the war unless its maximalist goals are met. There is now little reason for Russia to negotiate, as Russian
President Vladimir Putin likely believes he can win the war—which, in his view, means the subjugation
of Ukraine under Russian control. A negotiated settlement that preserves Ukrainian sovereignty and
democracy will be a humiliation for Putin, even if Ukraine recognizes Russian dominion over the
territories gained since the full-scale invasion.
This is not conjecture. Between October 2023 and April 2024, U.S. aid to Ukraine slowed and then
came to a halt, as Congress debated whether to fund Ukraine’s war eort. Ukraine was at its weakest
during this period, having lost access to vital aid and having failed in its 2023 counteroensive. But
