ndupress.ndu.edu SF No. 296 1
I
t is often stated that cohesion constitutes the center of gravity of the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Yet divergent domestic pressures
and external threat perceptions are threatening to pull Allies apart and
leave the Euro-Atlantic security architecture in shatters. When NATO Heads
of State and Government meet in Warsaw on July 8–9, 2016, the stakes will be
high. Not since the end of the Cold War has the security outlook been as bleak
or the collective resources for meeting multiple threats as meager.
is paper takes stock of the existing debates on the Warsaw Summit agenda
and oers a set of recommendations on how U.S. ocials might attempt to foster
unity within the Alliance. A cursory review of the various commentaries on the
Warsaw Summit agenda suggests that this exercise will have much in common
with the proverbial practice of herding cats.
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Dierent Allies all want to see more
of what they individually desire, while the Alliance as a whole will struggle to
satisfy competing demands. Much has been written already about the delicate
balancing act required for shoring up eastern and southern defenses, as well as for
reconciling the needs of deterrence with political dialogue. However, coming to
grips with the diplomatic diculties of nding consensus entails acknowledging
that the diculties are as much internal as they are external to the Alliance.
is analysis proceeds as follows. e rst section discusses the various
issues featuring on the Warsaw Summit agenda. While individual discussion
items have logical answers, these often entail signicant nancial implications.
e principal challenge for summit diplomacy will therefore reside in maintain-
ing unity over the inevitable package deal that reconciles competing demands
for resources. Success cannot be taken for granted. e three following sections
detail a set of recommendations for dealing with the challenge of fragmenta-
tion. At the level of threat perceptions, a coherent narrative can be constructed
The NATO Warsaw Summit:
How to Strengthen Alliance
Cohesion
by Alexander Mattelaer
STRATEGIC FORUM
National Defense University
About the Author
Dr. Alexander Mattelaer is Assistant
Director of the Institute for European
Studies in Brussels. During the spring
of 2016 he was a Fulbright Schuman
Visiting Fellow in the Center for
Strategic Research, Institute for
National Strategic Studies, at the
National Defense University.
Key Points
In July 2016 NATO leaders will
meet in Warsaw to formally re-
view whether earlier decisions on
strengthening the Alliance’s collec-
tive defenses are sufcient. Greater
efforts will be needed, but consen-
sus may not be easy to achieve.
Below the surface, the cohesion of
NATO is under severe strain from
multiple crises including Russian
revanchism, mass migration, and
terrorism. Summit preparations are
also taking place under the shadow
of potential strategic shocks. Inter-
nal disagreements fueled by rising
populism could lead to a British exit
from the European Union, a disor-
derly breakdown of the Schengen
system, or worse.
In this context it would be a mis-
take to underestimate the risk of
NATO fragmentation. To strengthen
cohesion, U.S. leaders should
consider broadening the debate be-
yond the immediate concerns over
Europe’s troubled neighborhood,
fostering intra-European peer
pressure on providing adequate
military capabilities, and stimulat-
ing European nations to develop
complementary force postures.
These initiatives could revitalize
the transatlantic bond, but would
require patient engagement before
and after the summit.
June 2016
CENTER FOR STRATEGIC RESEARCH
