ctnsp.dodlive.mil DH No. 79 1
T
he Ukraine conict poses unique and asymmetric challenges to the
international community. Since the earliest days of the Crimean cri-
sis, Russian support of “separatists” within Ukraine has ranged from
plainclothes thugs to more traditional uniformed troops, munitions, and other
forms of aid. Some of the individuals involved may have had links to the Russian
military or its intelligence community. While much of the aid comes through
the porous border between Russia and Ukraine, Russia also leverages the op-
portunity to use Black Sea smugglers as a way to supply ongoing rebellions or to
initiate new revolts. Two Black Sea–bordering regions, Odessa and Transnistria,
are home to active pro-Russian movements that could potentially evolve into
a pro-Russian state. Worries of Russia supplying separatists via illicit move-
ments on the Black Sea and generally advancing its Novorossyia claims should
be matched to a general concern over Black Sea smuggling rings, which trac
humans, weapons, and nuclear materials into Europe via Odessa’s port.
To solve these problems, American unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) oer
an eective intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) solution. Assets
could conduct maritime ISR of the Crimean Peninsula, Russian borders, main
smuggling corridors, and littoral regions over international waters. Based on the
ISR accumulation, such assets could provide intelligence on Russia-based ag-
gression while aiding Black Sea Allies to apprehend criminals. Assets such as the
RQ-4 Global Hawk or MQ-4C Triton systems would t this mission prole and
could operate out of the existing U.S. airbase at Romania’s Mihail Kogălniceanu
International Airport (M.K. Base) for maximum persistence across the Black
Responding to Russia after the
NATO Summit: Unmanned
Aerial Systems Overmatch in
the Black Sea
by Conor Sullivan, Schuyler Standley, and James M.
Keagle
Defense Horizons
National Defense University
CENTER FOR TECHNOLOGY AND NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY
Key Points
In the aftermath of the North At-
lantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
summit in Wales in September
2014, the Obama administration
pledged $1 billion to assist Allies
on the eastern front. This was in
response to Russian initiatives and
our Allies’ requests for increased
U.S. presence.
A potential response could be
the introduction of intelligence,
surveillance, and reconnaissance
capabilities around the Black Sea.
Given the increasing concern
over the strategic importance
and therefore vulnerability of the
areas bordering the Black Sea,
such as Odessa, Transnistria, and
the Danube Delta, this asymmetric
response from the United States
not only would add a less escala-
tory pressure on Russian interests
in the area but also could allevi-
ate some of the concerns of some
NATO members.
April 2015
About the Authors
Conor Sullivan is a Senior in
the Maxwell School at Syracuse
University majoring in International
Relations and Policy Studies. Schuyler
Standley is a Research Intern in the
Center for Technology and National
Security Policy, Institute for National
Strategic Studies, at the National
Defense University (NDU). James M.
Keagle is a University Professor at
NDU.
