ndupress.ndu.edu SF No. 290 1
T
he signing of a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in July
2015 to address international concerns about Iran’s nuclear program
has led to bullish predictions about the future of Sino-Iranian rela-
tions. Under the deal, Iran is expected to limit its uranium enrichment and make
other changes to its nuclear program in exchange for the removal of internation-
al sanctions.
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China is expected to be a prime beneciary of the deal as Chinese
rms take advantage of greater access to the Iranian market, especially in the
energy sector. Some U.S. analysts also contend that the two countries could forge
deeper strategic relations as well, involving coordination designed to weaken
U.S. inuence—or what both states see as U.S. “hegemonism”—in the region.
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Although the JCPOA will facilitate closer relations between Beijing and
Tehran in some areas, relations between the two will remain constrained by
several obstacles. ese include China’s need to balance its relations with Iran
against those with the United States and others in the region that are on poor
terms with Iran, such as Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Turkey; its hedging of geopo-
litical risk by avoiding overreliance on Iran as an energy partner; and its basic
desire for a stable and peaceful Middle East, which militates against support
for a more assertive Iranian foreign policy. us, despite the prospects of greater
China-Iran economic and diplomatic cooperation, the two will likely make only
limited progress in developing more comprehensive strategic relations.
Yet even a modest expansion of Sino-Iranian ties could have signicant
consequences for the United States. is is most notable in the military arena,
where China and Iran may seek to revive their once-close cooperation. Chinese
sales of advanced weapons could improve Iran’s ability to threaten U.S. military
forces in the Middle East and pose proliferation risks. Washington should ad-
dress these challenges by enforcing the remaining sanctions on Iran and urging
Posing Problems Without an
Alliance: China-Iran Relations
after the Nuclear Deal
by Joel Wuthnow
STRATEGIC FORUM
National Defense University
About the Author
Dr. Joel Wuthnow is a Research Fellow
in the Center for the Study of Chinese
Military Affairs, Institute for National
Strategic Studies, at the National
Defense University.
Key Points
China is poised to increase eco-
nomic and diplomatic cooperation
with Iran as a result of sanctions
relief under the recent Iran nuclear
deal, though a close geopolitical
alignment between the two states
is unlikely.
Sino-Iranian relations will remain
limited by several enduring con-
straints, including China’s desire for
positive ties with other states, its
pursuit of energy diversication,
and its need for regional stability.
Renewed Chinese arms sales to
Iran could constitute an emerging
challenge for the United States.
This could increase Iran’s antiaccess/
area-denial threat to U.S. military
forces and create proliferation risks.
U.S. ofcials should press Chinese
interlocutors to avoid exporting
advanced weapons, which could
embolden Iran to conduct a more
brazen foreign policy that would
threaten China’s fundamental need
for regional stability.
February 2016
CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF CHINESE MILITARY AFFAIRS
