inss.dodlive.mil SF No. 288 1
D
espite its reputation for peace and stability in a troubled region, the
East African country of Tanzania is experiencing a rising number of
militant Islamist attacks that have targeted local Christian leaders
and foreign tourists, as well as popular bars and restaurants. ese attacks, which
began in 2012, rarely make the headlines of international media. However, they
should serve as a wake-up call for U.S. policymakers to increase short-term en-
gagement with Tanzanian ocials and support for Tanzanian security agencies
to preempt the emergence of a more signicant threat to U.S. and international
interests in East Africa.
Thus far, the attacks in Tanzania have been relatively unsophisticated.
They have involved crude homemade explosives, handguns, and buckets of
acid; they have been focused on poorly protected targets of opportunity;
and they have not resulted in mass casualties. However, as events over the
past few years in neighboring Kenya have demonstrated, today’s seemingly
minor and manageable threats can evolve quickly into something far more
lethal and intractable. In Kenya, similarly unsophisticated attacks only a
few years ago have grown quickly, resulting in the Westgate Mall attack
in September 2013, when 4 shooters killed 67 people and wounded 175
more; the discovery in March 2014 of a massive car bomb in Mombasa that
could have killed scores more; and the massacre of more than 60 villagers
in Lamu County in June 2014. Events such as these have thrown Kenya
into a cycle of violence pitting national security forces against clandestine
militant cells.
This paper provides an overview of the current threat posed by Islamist
militants in Tanzania by tracing their evolution in the Tanzanian political
The Rising Terrorist Threat in
Tanzania: Domestic Islamist
Militancy and Regional Threats
by Andre LeSage
Strategic Forum
National Defense University
About the Author
Dr. Andre LeSage is a Senior Research
Fellow in the Center for Strategic
Research, Institute for National
Strategic Studies, at the National
Defense University.
Key Points
The growing number of militant
Islamist attacks in Tanzania
demonstrates a nascent terrorist
threat that can undermine peace
and stability in yet another East
African country.
Local and regional dynamics—
including foreign ghters
returning from Somalia, disputes
over the Zanzibar islands, and
national elections in 2015—could
create a “perfect storm” that
would exacerbate the threat.
If its issues remain unaddressed,
Tanzania is likely to experience
the same security trends as Kenya,
where, with the help of exter-
nal support, local capabilities
have been developed to conduct
increasingly deadly attacks that
affect U.S. and other foreign
interests.
In response, the United States
needs to focus policy-level atten-
tion on the situation in Tanzania
and invest additional intelligence,
law enforcement, and strategic
communications efforts to combat
the spread of violent extremism.
September 2014
CENTER FOR STRATEGIC RESEARCH
