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early 3 years since the start of the Syrian civil war, no clear winner
is in sight. Assassinations and defections of civilian and military
loyalists close to President Bashar al-Asad, rebel success in parts
of Aleppo and other key towns, and the spread of violence to Damascus it-
self suggest that the regime is losing ground to its opposition. e tenacity of
government forces in retaking territory lost to rebel factions, such as the key
town of Qusayr, and attacks on Turkish and Lebanese military targets indi-
cate, however, that the regime can win because of superior military equipment,
especially airpower and missiles, and help from Iran and Hizballah. No one is
prepared to condently predict when the regime will collapse or if its oppo-
nents can win. At this point several assessments seem clear:
The Syrian opposition will continue to reject any compromise that
keeps Asad in power and imposes a transitional government that includes
loyalists of the current Baathist regime. While a compromise could ensure
continuity of government and a degree of institutional stability, it will al-
most certainly lead to protracted unrest and reprisals, especially if regime
appointees and loyalists remain in control of the police and internal security
services.
How Asad goes matters. He could be removed by coup, assassina-
tion, or an arranged exile. Whether by external or internal means, building
a compromise transitional government after Asad will be complicated by
three factors: disarray in the Syrian opposition, disagreement among United
Nations (UN) Security Council members, and an intransigent sitting gov-
ernment. Asad was quick to accept Russia’s proposal on securing chemical
weapons but may not be so accommodating should Russia or Iran propose
his removal.
Next Steps in Syria
by Judith S. Yaphe
Strategic Forum
National Defense University
About the Author
Dr. Judith S. Yaphe is a Distinguished
Research Fellow in the Center for
Strategic Research, Institute for
National Strategic Studies, at the
National Defense University.
Key Points
Syria has been in a state of sectar-
ian civil war since early 2011. The
conict has spread to its neigh-
bors in Iraq and Lebanon and, if
left unchecked, could destabilize
Turkey, Jordan, and a much wider
swath of the Middle East region.
Regardless of whether President
Bashar al-Asad survives or fails,
resolution of the civil war poses
especially difcult problems for
U.S. strategic planning at a time
when the Obama administration
is trying to focus on the pivot
to Asia rather than the constant
crises in the Middle East.
The Syrian crisis risks redening
the traditional balance of power
in the region as well as relations
between the United States, re-
gional friends, and Russia. Russia’s
proposal that Syria cooperate
with United Nations restrictions
on its chemical weapons and the
unease expressed by Iran’s new
president over Syria’s possible use
of chemical weapons have raised
speculation that the Syrian crisis
could be resolved without U.S.
military intervention.
December 2013
CENTER FOR STRATEGIC RESEARCH
