JANUARY 2015
POLICY BRIEF
Defend, Defect, or Desert?:
The Future of the Afghan Security Forces
T
he Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF)
are soon to become the center of gravity
for security in Afghanistan. In September 2014,
U.S. and Afghan leaders signed a Bilateral Security
Agreement (BSA) and have since announced that
approximately 10,800 U.S. service members will
remain in Afghanistan as the formal portion of the
international combat mission ends.
2
e size of the
U.S. support mission in Afghanistan is scheduled
to decrease even further. Earlier this year, President
Obama stated that the United States would
drawdown to a “normal embassy presence” by the
end of 2016.
3
In the coming months, Afghanistan will depend on
increasingly independent Afghan security forces to
ght a tough insurgency—one that is perhaps even
as strong as it was four years ago during the height
of U.S. and coalition operations.
4
In order to achieve its strategic goal to deny safe
haven to Al-Qaeda and its aliates, the United
States must continue to provide support to the
ANSF. To be sure, Afghanistan is only one part
of a larger U.S. mission to disrupt and destroy the
Al-Qaeda network. Both the 2010 National Security
Strategy and President Obama’s comments this
year highlight that the shi towards an advise
and assist mission in Afghanistan will aord the
United States greater “exibility to fulll dier-
ent missions” in the rest of the world.
5
However,
while refocusing to other parts of the globe, the
United States must remain committed to sustain-
ing the ANSF. Without functioning security forces,
Afghanistan will be unable to defend even the most
fundamental population areas and transportation
routes. is may undermine the ability of U.S.
special operations forces to conduct counterterror-
ism operations—and will almost certainly deny the
United States a host country partner in disrupting
the Al-Qaeda network in Afghanistan. Although
Afghanistan and Iraq are vastly dierent places, the
“Together with our allies, America struck huge blows against al Qaeda core and pushed back against
an insurgency that threatened to overrun [Afghanistan]. But sustaining this progress depends on the
ability of Afghans to do the job. And that’s why we trained hundreds of thousands of Afghan soldiers
and police.”
President Barack Obama, May 28, 2014
