Drones are rapidly proliferating around the globe. Not only has the commercial market for
drones dramatically expanded, but arms transfers of unarmed and armed drones between states
are also steadily rising. The United States and its allies must consider how the widespread
availability of drones will change conflict, particularly in ambiguous engagements that remain
below the threshold of conventional war. They also must anticipate how actors will use drones
and how others will respond to those uses.
In October 2015, the Center for a New American Security held
a two-day wargame entitled Game of Drones at the National
Defense University to explore the implications of a world of
proliferated drones. The wargame brought together a diverse
group of experts from the U.S. and allied militaries, academia,
think tanks, media, and international organizations.
Participants represented a range of actors, from major nation-
states to non-state groups, across a dozen multi-turn scenarios.
The wargame found that although existing drone technology is relatively simple, the
availability of drones can have important tactical, strategic, and political implications across the
spectrum of conflict. Drones increase the options available to state and non-state actors to apply
military force where they might not have had the resources or will to act without access to
uninhabited (“unmanned”) technology. This increased optionality is particularly impactful in so-
called “hybrid” and “gray zone” conflicts, the types of ambiguous interactions short of full-scale
war that are typical in today’s security environment.
Introduction
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