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Force Development Options for India by 2030
Chris Dougherty
INTRODUCTION
Strategists and military force planners in India and the United States are grappling with a similar set
of challenges posed by China’s military modernization and increasingly aggressive foreign policy.
While the overall challenge may be similar, India’s responses must conform to India’s unique strategic
position rather than attempt to emulate the United States in reduced form. Moreover, while increased
budgets and institutional defense reform may improve India’s capacity, these efforts are politically and
bureaucratically difficult and cannot singlehandedly solve the challenges India faces in competing with
China.
This paper proceeds in three parts. The first part compares the strategic situations of India and the
United States vis-à-vis China and uses the contrasts in this analysis to shade in the outlines and
assumptions for the rest of the paper. Next, the paper explores two specific military challenges—one
on the land border and one at sea—that China could pose, and recommends Indian strategies and
operational responses. Finally, the paper concludes with force-planning recommendations for India
based on the demands of these responses and informed by the core strategic assumptions laid out in
the first section.
Before beginning the analysis, several caveats are in order. The author is an American strategist and
force-planner, not an expert in Indian military affairs. While he has researched the topic to the best of
his ability in a limited time, it is no substitute for years of experience. The author therefore uses U.S.
military strategy and force planning as a foil to better understand India’s decision space and
communicate these ideas to an audience that, like him, may not be experts in Indian strategic affairs.
Finally, the ideas and recommendations in this paper are conceptual and nascent. They require further
wargaming and analysis to make them more detailed, concrete, and implementable.
SIMILAR CHALLENGE, DIFFERENT CAPABILITIES
On its face, the strategic situation Indian armed forces face over the next ten years appears similar to
the challenges that formed the central problem statement of the U.S. Department of Defense’s 2018
National Defense Strategy. India and the United States must address the challenges posed by China’s
military modernization and shift toward a more forward-leaning strategic posture. China’s military
challenge to the free and open Indo-Pacific order requires Indian and U.S. armed forces to update or
replace antiquated military strategies, operational concepts, organizational constructs, and equipment.
At the same time, both India and the United States face ongoing terrorist and irregular threats, as well
as conventional and nuclear threats from less-formidable regional opponents. India and the United
States even share a history of using simultaneous conflicts to gauge the overall capability and capacity
of their armed forces. The armed forces of both states must undertake programs of profound
peacetime innovation to meet future challenges while present-day threats and operations place
incessant demands on scarce resources, both financial and intellectual.
