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Oensive Cyber
Capabilities: To What Ends?
Abstract: There is a growing interest in the use of offensive cyber capabilities (OCC)
among states. Despite the growing interest in these capabilities, little is still known
about the nature of OCC as a tool of the state. This research therefore aims to understand
if (and how) offensive cyber capabilities have the potential to change the role of
military power. Drawing on a wide range of cases, we argue that these capabilities can
alter the manner in which states use their military power strategically in at least four
ways. OCC are not particularly effective in deterring adversary military action, except
when threatened to be used by states with a credible reputation. However, they do
have value in compellence. Unlike conventional capabilities, the effects of offensive
cyber operations do not necessarily have to be exposed publicly, which means the
compelled party can back down post-action without losing face thus deescalating
conict. The potential to control the reversibility of effect of an OCC by the attacker
may also encourage compliance. OCC also contribute to the use of force for defensive
purposes, as it could provide both a preemptive as well as preventive strike option.
Finally, its symbolic value as a ‘prestige weapon’ to enhance ‘swaggering’ remains
unclear, due to its largely non-material ontology and transitory nature.
Keywords: offensive cyber capabilities, compellence, defense, deterrence, military
power, swaggering
Max Smeets
Center for International Security
and Cooperation
Stanford University
Stanford, United States
mwsmeets@stanford.edu
Herbert S. Lin
Center for International Security
and Cooperation
The Hoover Institution
Stanford University
Stanford, United States
herbert.s.lin@stanford.edu
2018 10th International Conference on Cyber Conict
CyCon X: Maximising Eects
T. Minárik, R. Jakschis, L. Lindström (Eds.)
2018 © NATO CCD COE Publications, Tallinn
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