ARTICLE
Modeling the Performance of Hypersonic
Boost-Glide Missiles
Cameron L. Tracy
a
and David Wright
b
a
Global Security Program, Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA, USA;
b
Department of
Nuclear Science and Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
ABSTRACT
The United States, Russia, and China are developing an array
of hypersonic weapons—maneuverable vehicles that carry
warheads through the atmosphere at more than five times
the speed of sound. Proponents claim that these weapons
outperform existing missiles in terms of delivery time and eva-
sion of early warning systems. Here, we report computational
modeling of hypersonic boost-glide missile flight which shows
that these weapons travel intercontinental distances more
slowly than comparable ballistic missiles flying depressed tra-
jectories, and that they remain visible to existing space-based
sensors for the majority of flight. Fundamental physical limita-
tions imposed by low-altitude atmospheric flight render
hypersonic missiles an evolutionary—not revolutionary—
development relative to established ballistic missile technolo-
gies. Misperceptions of hypersonic weapon performance have
arisen from social processes by which the organizations devel-
oping these weapons construct erroneous technical facts
favoring continued investment. The modeling reported here
provides a basis for rigorous, quantitative analysis of hyper-
sonic weapon performance.
Introduction
Hypersonic weapons comprise an emerging class of missile technologies—
maneuverable vehicles that carry warheads through the atmosphere at more
than five times the speed of sound.
1
Their flight characteristics are distinct
from those of typical ballistic missiles, which spend most of flight above
the atmosphere and are capable of only limited maneuverability, and from
those of subsonic or supersonic cruise missiles, which travel through the
atmosphere but fly more slowly.
The United States, China, and Russia are currently racing to develop
these weapons, and each plans to field a wide array of hypersonic systems
in the coming decades.
2
The most recent U.S. defense budget, for example,
CONTACT Cameron L. Tracy ctracy@ucsusa.org Global Security Program, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2
Brattle, Square, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
ß 2021 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
SCIENCE & GLOBAL SECURITY
https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2020.1864945
