Slowing the Hypersonic
Arms Race
A Rational Approach to an Emerging
Missile Technology
Technological arms races rarely lead to rational, cost-eective decisions regard-
ing weapons development. The United States has a great deal of experience
with the associated pitfalls, particularly when it comes to missiles. In the 1960s,
for example, US attempts to counter presumed Soviet missile defenses yielded
systems that were “premature, excessive, or even completely inappropriate” for
this purpose, since the anticipated Soviet defenses never materialized (Spinardi
1994, 175). In the 1980s, the Strategic Defense Initiative was meant to produce a
robust homeland defense against Soviet ballistic missiles, but it resulted instead
in investments into technologies that independent technical assessments found
to be largely speculative and that were ultimately abandoned on these grounds
(Bloembergen et al. 1987; Carter1984).
In recent years, the United States has found itself once again locked in a tech-
nological arms race over a weapon of questionable utility. Hypersonic weapons
are currently the focus of intense competition among the United States, China,
and Russia, with each having multiple missiles in varying stages of development.
Proponents of this technology depict it as a “game changer” (Simon 2020).
Analysts argue that they could “hit over-the-horizon targets in a fraction of the
time it would take existing ballistic or cruise missiles” (Horowitz 2019, 782),
while ocials claim that “developments in hypersonic propulsion will revolution-
ize warfare by providing the ability to strike targets more quickly” (Statement for
HIGHLIGHTS
Hypersonic weapons are commonly
touted as new, revolutionary missile
technologies. The United States, Russia,
and China are racing to acquire them at
great expense—$3.2billion dollars in the
most recent US annual defense budget.
But claims regarding the performance
of these weapons are rarely backed up
withdata.
Technical analysis by the Union of
Concerned Scientists shows that
hypersonic weapons oer few meaningful
advantages over existing missiles
in terms of speed, maneuverability,
accuracy, stealth, or the evasion of
missile defenses. To ensure cost-eective
defense spending, and to mitigate the
risks associated with an unconstrained
arms race, werecommend that the
United States slow its development and
acquisition of these weapons to better
align funding with their limited tactical
and strategicutility.
Hypersonic missiles, such as the US Hypersonic Test Vehicle shown here, are often depicted as revolutionary
new technologies. However, technical analysis shows that their performance is strictly limited by the
complex physics of hypersonic flight.
DOD illustration
