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© 2020 by James Timbie
https://doi.org/10.1162/DAED_a_01797
A Way Forward
James Timbie
This essay develops elements of an agreement to limit and reduce nuclear forces that
would succeed the New
START Treaty. The successor arrangements would be more
complicated than the bilateral
INF, START, and New START treaties, involving more
subjects and more countries, as the negotiations consider each of the issues the Unit-
ed States and Russia have said should be addressed in a new agreement. The result is a
comprehensive program of practical steps to enhance predictability, resume the reduc-
tion of nuclear forces, and reduce the risk of conflict in an increasingly complex world.
A
s New START (New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), the last of the bi-
lateral strategic nuclear arms treaties, approaches its expiration–which
seems likely by 2026 and perhaps much sooner–the international securi-
ty situation grows steadily more complex. The strategic forces of the United States
and Russia no longer dominate the nuclear landscape as they did when the bilateral
treaties were negotiated. Past success in reducing U.S. and Russian strategic nucle-
ar warheads has increased the salience of other nuclear weapons, nuclear weapons
of other countries, missile defenses, and advanced conventional and space systems,
all of which need to be considered in future negotiations. Looking ahead to a transi-
tion from bilateral treaties to more complicated arrangements involving more sub-
jects and more countries, this essay outlines a program of practical steps to enhance
predictability and transparency, resume the process of reductions in nuclear forces,
and reduce the risk of unintended conflict in an increasingly complex world.
While strategic competition between the United States and Russia and China
greatly complicates consideration of the diplomatic engagement with Russia and
China necessary to negotiate and implement the cooperative measures suggest-
ed here, placing bounds on otherwise unregulated competition could enhance the
security of all involved. At this difficult moment, international cooperation can
help to reduce the risk of conflict and need not be deferred to a perhaps distant fu-
ture with a more favorable political climate.
The objectives of the steps outlined here are to:
• Reduce the risk of unintended nuclear conflict, as a result of misinterpre-
tation of rapidly unfolding events in multiple domains with little historical
precedent.
