THE DEVELOPMENT STATUS OF CHINA'S URANIUM ENRICHMENT
Hui Zhang
Project on Managing the Atom
Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, MA 02138
Abstract
China leads the world in term of nuclear power development pace and new reactor construction.
To meet the expected rapid increase of enrichment requirements, since 2010 the China National
Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) has expanded significantly its indigenous centrifuge enrichment
capacity. However, China does not officially release information on its enrichment capacity.
Based on satellite imagery, Chinese publications, and discussions with Chinese experts, this
work will examine the current status of China’s uranium-enrichment development and offer
significant new estimates of the capacity of China's operating enrichment facilities.
The pace of Chinese nuclear-power development and new-reactor construction leads the world.
The China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC)—the sole player responsible for enrichment
services in China—has said that it maintains a policy of “self-sufficiency” in the supply of
enriched-uranium products needed to fuel its nuclear power plants.
To meet the expected rapid
increase of enrichment requirements, since 2010 China has expanded significantly its indigenous
enrichment capacity.
China does not officially release information on its enrichment capacity. Based on satellite
imagery, Chinese publications, and discussions with Chinese experts, this author made in 2015
an estimate on China’s enrichment capacity.
In the years since then, there have been a number
of new significant developments. Several new centrifuge facilities have been recently
commissioned. In 2020, China has a total estimated enrichment capacity of about 7.8 million
SWU (separative work units), which represents an increase of about four times over its 2010
capacity (see Figure 1).
Moreover, since 2016 the CNNC has scaled back the enrichment expansion by suspending and
postponing some already planned or under-construction projects, mainly due to China’s slowing
reactor growth. That trend will likely continue, at least for the coming few years. However,
China’s SWU capacities are expected to expand significantly to align well with the country’s
domestic and export reactor growth over next two decades.
