HUDSON INSTITUTE
NATO NEEDS A NEW STRATEGY FOR THE BALTIC SEA
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POLICY MEMO
NATO Needs a New Strategy
for the Baltic Sea
LUKE COFFEY
Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
October 2022
With Sweden and Finland soon joining the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO), the alliance needs to act quickly
to develop plans that acknowledge the new geopolitical reality
in the Baltic Sea region. When Sweden and Finland become
members, the alliance will need a comprehensive approach
to security that considers the region as a whole—instead of
dividing it into the traditional “Baltic” and “Nordic” camps.
Since Peter the Great (1682–1725), Russia has had imperial
designs on the region, and this is unlikely to change in the
foreseeable future. Russia’s tactical-level defeats in eastern
Ukraine should not inspire strategic complacency in NATO
policymakers. They should view the entry of Sweden and
Finland into NATO as the starting point, and not the nish line,
for bolstering Baltic Sea security.
If NATO takes the right steps, Sweden and Finland’s entry will
allow the alliance to defend the Baltic states more easily and
deter Russian aggression more effectively in the region. Among
other things, the following measures can accomplish this goal:
• Update and modernize NATO’s contingency plans in the
Baltic Sea region
• Emphasize the role of the Åland Islands, Gotland, and
Bornholm, as well as the Danish Straits, in Baltic Sea
contingency planning
• Establish a NATO battlegroup in Finland
• Increase the alliance’s maritime presence in the Baltic Sea
• Establish a permanent military presence in the Baltic states
• Establish a Baltic Sea Air Defense mission
• Develop contingency plans for Belarus and Kaliningrad in
the event of an armed conict in the Baltic Sea region
A New Geopolitical Reality
NATO needs to continuously update its contingency plans as
the security landscape in Europe evolves and new members
join the alliance. In the past, NATO has often been too slow
to take these steps. For example, after the three Baltic States
(Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) joined in 2004, NATO was
