C O R P O R A T I O N
Does the United States or China Have More
Influence in the Indo-Pacific Region?
U.S. Versus Chinese
Powers of Persuasion
U.S. policymakers and experts are
focused on two central questions about long-term strategic
competition between the United States and the People’s
Republic of China (PRC): How do we assess how well the
United States is doing relative to China, and which country
has more influence in the Indo-Pacific region?
RAND Project AIR FORCE researchers addressed these
two questions by first defining what influence means in the
context of great-power competition and creating a framework
to measure U.S. versus PRC influence. The result brings
into focus a well-defined picture of the United States and
China’s strengths and weaknesses in third countries in
the Indo-Pacific—in short, a snapshot of whether the
United States or China is “winning” the competition for
influence and where.
Adobe Stock/ luzitanija
RESEARCH BRIEF
KEY FINDINGS
• In competition, influence—the ability
of one actor to shape the actions of
another—is relative, and depends on
a partner’s shared interests with the
United States (versus China) and what
the United States can offer the partner
(versus China).
• Across the Indo-Pacific region, China
has more economic influence and the
United States has more diplomatic and
military sway, but partners generally
value economic development over
security concerns.
• The United States has more influence
than China in Australia, India, Japan,
the Philippines, and Singapore; similar
influence in Indonesia; and relatively
less influence in Malaysia, Thailand,
and Vietnam.
