Space Activities in 2015
Jonathan McDowell
planet4589@gmail.com
Preface
In this paper I present some statistics characterizing astronautical activity in calendar year 2015.
In the 2014 edition of this review, I described my methodological approach and some issues of
definitional ambguity; that discussion is not repeated here, and it is assumed that the reader has
consulted the earlier document, available at http://planet4589.org/space/papers/space14.pdf (This
paper may be found as space15.pdf at the same location).
Orbital Launch Attempts
During 2015 there were 87 orbital launch attempts.
2009-2013 2014 2015
Average
USA 19.0 24 20
Russia 30.2 32 26
China 14.8 16 19
France 11 12
Japan 4 4
India 4 5
Israel 1 0
N Korea 0 0
S Korea 0 0
Iran 0 1
Other 15.0 20 22
Total 79.0 92 87
There were three Arianespace-managed Soyuz launches from French Guiana which are counted
as French. The IXV/AVUM Vega launch reached orbit and is so counted, although it was erro-
neously neither UN-registered nor given an international designation.
2015 saw the long-awaited first flight of the new generation of Chang Zheng (Long March)
launch vehicles. The CZ-5/6/7 family, based on LOX/kerosene core stages, is expected to replace
the N2O4/UDMH-based CZ-2/3/4 family. The smallest of the new family, the CZ-6, orbited a
cluster of small satellites in September. A new solid fuel small launch vehicle, the CZ-11, made its
first flight a week later. 2016 is expected to see the first flight of the heavy CZ-5 rocket and the
orbital inauguration of the Hainan spaceport.
Launch failures
There were five orbital launch failures during the year, tabulated below. To evaluate average launch
vehicle reliability I allocate each launch a score between 0.0 (total failure) and 1.0 (success). Failures
which nevertheless reach orbit get an intermediate score.
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