January 9, 2020
The 2019-2020 Iran Crisis and U.S. Military Deployments
The January 2, 2020, U.S. drone strike against Iranian
Major General Qasem Soleimani, the subsequent Iranian
counter-strike on bases hosting U.S. personnel in Iraq, and
recent deployments of U.S. military forces to the Middle
East have prompted widespread concerns about whether the
United States is preparing to engage in another major
military campaign in the region. Yet at present, the flow of
additional forces into the U.S. Central Command
(CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR) suggests that
the Department of Defense (DOD) is posturing itself in the
region defensively, with the ability to respond to
aggression, if necessary. The design of this posture may be
altered should there be changes to security or political
conditions on the ground, or political objectives for the
region.
Figure 1. The CENTCOM AOR
Map: CRS, Jan. 8, 2020. Presence data: CENTCOM.mil (2016); DOD
Base Structure Report (2015); federal contracting announcements
(https://govtribe.com, 2015); MilitaryBases.com (2016); and CRS
analysis. Map boundaries: Dept. of State (2015); Esri (2014). Names
and boundaries not necessarily authoritative.
Force Employment Goals?
The Trump Administration has stated that its “core
objective … is the systemic change in the Islamic
Republic’s hostile and destabilizing actions, including
blocking all paths to a nuclear weapon and exporting
terrorism.” Most recently, U.S. officials have argued that
additional forces flowing in the region, as well as the strike
against Soleimani, are intended to “re-establish deterrence.”
The military is but one tool of national power that could be
used in a variety of ways to achieve the above stated U.S.
objectives. These range from increasing presence and
posture in the region to seeking regime change. As with any
use of the military instrument, any choice to employ U.S.
forces—or not—is an inherently risky endeavor and could
result in retaliatory Iranian action and/or the further
escalation of a crisis in unpredictable ways. Iran’s actions
may influence U.S. force levels as much as or more so than
U.S. plans.
Recent Deployments
Precise figures of deployed U.S. personnel are difficult to
determine due to unit rotations in and out of a given theater.
According to DOD, as of June 19, 2019, “there are
approximately 60-80,000 U.S. troops in the U.S. Central
Command area of responsibility,” including approximately
13,000 troops in Afghanistan and 5,200 in Iraq. In recent
months, the Pentagon has announced several troop and
capability movements to and from the CENTCOM theater;
with rotations, these announced deployments total
approximately 10,000 additional troops. Key
announcements, which should be treated as illustrative
rather than definitive deployment figures, include the
following:
On May 5, 2019, then-National Security Adviser John Bolton
announced that the United States was accelerating the
previously planned deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln
Carrier Strike Group in response to tensions to the region and
sending a bomber task force to the Persian Gulf area. The
Lincoln was relieved by the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike
Group in December 2019.
On May 24, 2019, DOD said that the President approved a
plan to augment U.S. defense and deterrence against Iran by
deploying to the Gulf region an additional 900 military
personnel, extending the deployment of another 600 that were
sent earlier to operate Patriot missile defense equipment, and
sending additional combat and reconnaissance aircraft.
On June 17, 2019, then-Acting Defense Secretary Patrick
Shanahan announced that the United States was sending an
additional 1,000 military personnel to the Gulf “for defensive
purposes.”
On July 18, 2019, U.S. defense officials said that an additional
500 U.S. troops would deploy to Saudi Arabia. The
deployment, to Prince Sultan Air Base south of Riyadh,
reportedly will include fighter aircraft and air defense
equipment.
On September 20, 2019, U.S. officials announced a
“moderate” (widely interpreted as 200 personnel) deployment
of additional U.S. forces to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The
forces reportedly accompany additional missile defense
systems and combat aircraft sent to facilities in those countries,
and are “defensive in nature.”
On October 11, 2019, U.S. officials announced the
deployment of additional forces and capabilities to Saudi
Arabia, including approximately 1,800 air defense personnel,
fighter squadrons, and an air expeditionary wing.
