Updated Blast Effects and Consequence Models in DDESB Technical Paper 14
Robert T. Conway, Naval Facilities Engineering and Expeditionary Warfare Center
1100 23rd Ave., Port Hueneme, CA 93043
Brandon Fryman, APT Research, Inc.
4950 Research Drive Huntsville, AL 35805
John W. Tatom, APT Research, Inc.
4950 Research Drive Huntsville, AL 35805
Dr. Josephine Covino, Department of Defense Explosives Safety Board
Suite 16E12 4800 Mark Center Drive Alexandria, VA 22350
Keywords: explosives, explosives siting, software, model TP-14, risk levels, safety-critical event analysis
Abstract
The U.S. Department of Defense Explosives Safety Board (DDESB) has established an approved quantitative risk
assessment (QRA) methodology for evaluating and accepting risks associated with explosives storage and activities.
This methodology is defined in DDESB Technical Paper (TP) 14, Approved Methods and Algorithms for DoD Risk-
Based Explosives Siting. The currently approved version of TP 14, Revision 4a, was published in March 2017,
however that update represented only administrative/editorial changes to TP 14 Revision 4, which was published in
July 2009. Significant updates to the blast effects and consequences algorithms of TP 14 have been underway
incorporating empirical results and analytical modeling techniques generated over the past decade, and have resulted
in a draft version of TP 14 Revision 5.
A general overview is provided of the methods and algorithms within TP 14 Revision 5 that estimate the blast effects
from an accidental explosion, and the associated consequences to personnel and assets. While the ultimate purpose of
TP 14 is to quantify the annual risk to personnel from explosives operations, the additional terms for estimation of
risk, probability of event, exposure, and the inherent uncertainty in the calculation, shall not be addressed within this
paper. Significant updates incorporated into Revision 5 shall be addressed, with accompanying background with
references for the basis of improvement and the ultimate effect on the end result. These improved models are in areas
including, but not limited to, new potential explosion site (PES) types, new exposed site (ES) types, improved pressure
& impulse attenuation curves, improved blast ingress models, updated direct blast effects models, improved glass
hazard logic, new primary fragment routines, improved PES secondary debris mass distribution, improved debris
launch velocity models, updated debris throw models, improved debris perforation models, and more advanced human
vulnerability models to blunt impact by debris.
While the current version of TP 14 (Revision 4a) is implemented with the software tool SAFER v3.1, the next version
of TP 14 (Revision 5) shall be implemented with the Risk Based Explosives Safety Siting (RBESS) module which
will reside within the Explosives Safety Siting (ESS) software, which is a QD siting software sponsored by the
DDESB.
Introduction
The U.S. Department of Defense Explosives Safety Board (DDESB) has established an approved quantitative risk
assessment (QRA) methodology for evaluating and accepting risks associated with explosives storage and activities.
In the explosives safety community, QRA represents an alternative path for regulator acceptance to the long
established deterministic method of quantity-distance (QD), where a singular distance as a function of explosives
weight is determined acceptable. This methodology is defined in DDESB Technical Paper (TP) 14 [Ref. 1], and
considers probability of event as a function of activity type, exposure of various population groups, and consequences
given the occurrence of an event. The Department of Defense (DoD) QRA model is based on recent advances in
