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Part II/Risk-Based Siting Criteria – Current Efforts in Risk Management and Siting Applications
Brandon Fryman; A-P-T Research, Inc.; Huntsville, Alabama, USA
John Tatom; A-P-T Research, Inc.; Huntsville, Alabama, USA
Jorge Flores; A-P-T Research, Inc.; Huntsville, Alabama, USA
Dr. Ming Liu; Naval Facilities Engineering & Expeditionary Warfare Center; Port Hueneme,
California, USA
Dr. Josephine Covino; Department of Defense Explosives Safety Board; Arlington, VA, USA
Keywords: Risk management, Explosion Effects, Consequences, Risk-based siting
Abstract
The U.S. Department of Defense Explosives Safety Board (DDESB) has established an approved
quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methodology for evaluating and accepting risks associated
with explosives storage and other activities. In the explosives safety community, QRA represents
an alternative path for regulator acceptance to the long-established, deterministic method of
quantity-distance (QD), where a singular distance as a function of explosives weight is
determined acceptable. The QRA methodology is defined in DDESB Technical Paper (TP) 14
and consists of:
1. Estimate of probability of event (P
e
) as a function of activity type, hazard division (HD) of
ammunition and explosives (AE), and environmental factors,
2. Exposure modeling for various population groups,
3. Consequences in terms of potential fatalities and injuries given the occurrence of an event,
and
4. Uncertainty modeling for the estimated risks.
The QRA model approved by DDESB has been recently updated, based on the latest advances in
explosives field test results, accident experiences, explosion effects, and structural response, to
better reflect real-world accidental explosions, but still provides conservative risk calculations.
Part II of this paper looks at the current efforts by the DDESB Risk Assessment Program Team
(RAPT) associated with the risk-based siting described above. These efforts include relooking at
the P
e
, updating the uncertainty modeling, relooking at the criteria by which QRA analysis are
compared to, updates to the Universal Risk Scale (URS), development of the Risk-Based
Explosives Safety Siting (RBESS), updates to TP-14 and TP-23, and providing support to the
updates to NATO AASTP-4. This paper also discusses the objectives, short-term goals, and
long-term goals of the RAPT, and presents a way-ahead for the team.
