1
Risk Assessment Methodology in Connection with Transfer of Former Military Training Areas to
Civilian Society in Sweden
Dennis Menning
; Swedish Defence Research Agency, FOI; Stockholm, Sweden
Johan Gidholm; Swedish Defence Research Agency, FOI; Stockholm, Sweden
Matilda Ågren; Swedish Defence Research Agency, FOI; Stockholm, Sweden
Patrik Blomander
; Swedish Fortifications Agency, FortV; Eskilstuna, Sweden
Keywords: military training areas, firing ranges, unexploded ordnance, UXO, residual risk, risk
assessment methodology
Abstract
Former military training areas and firing ranges in Sweden are presently subject to transfer to
civil society. Possible contamination by unexploded ordnance, UXO, poses a challenge in terms
of how to resolve the issue of residual risk for the general public. Therefore, a need for a viable
risk assessment methodology exist. The Swedish Defence Research Agency, FOI, supports the
Swedish Fortifications Agency, FortV, with development of a safety-based risk assessment
methodology, which addresses surrounding areas of former impact areas of military training areas
and firing ranges subject to transfer. By a systematic, hands-on, transparent and fact-based work
approach, a basis for further work has been developed. Acceptable levels of risk have been
proposed. A survey of historical UXO incidents in Sweden has been conducted as well as an
inventory and evaluation of a number of existing risk assessment models which address the same
or similar issues. A conservative risk assessment approach minimizes the risk of a too optimistic
residual risk value after risk reducing measures have been applied. The risk assessment
methodology aims for a site-specific, quantitative risk model, supported by fact-based and
traceable arguments. However, challenges, such as how to handle uncertainties and to incorporate
other risks, remain.
Introduction
The Swedish Fortifications Agency, FortV, is one of the largest holders of real estate in Sweden
and functions as the landlord for the Swedish Armed Forces. Former military training areas and
firing ranges comprise about 30 000 hectares and the majority of this land is to be transferred to
civil society. The challenge is posed by the potential presence of unexploded ordnance, UXO on
E-mail: dennis.menning@foi.se, phone: 0046 709 277 381.
E-mail: patrik.blomander@fortifikationsverket.se, phone: 0046 761 000 353.
