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Chapter One
INTRODUCTION
Concern recently has grown within the U.S. national security estab-
lishment that the natural protection from attack historically afforded
by the nation’s enviable geographic isolation—long borders with
stable neighbors to the north and south and large oceans to the east
and west—may be coming to an end.
One reason can be found in a number of unfavorable long-term
trends in the nature of the adversaries of the United States and their
potential future warfighting strategies. Future U.S. adversaries, rec-
ognizing that they are unlikely to prevail in theater war, it is believed,
may instead choose to respond asymmetrically by attacking the U.S.
homeland.
The unwillingness of the United States to negotiate with terrorists
and its willingness to strike sponsors of terrorism have shaped the
environment as well. Contemporary terrorist groups increasingly are
more interested in killing than extracting political concessions, and
the fear of reprisals has led to an increased desire for covert action
and plausible deniability among terrorist groups and their sponsors.
The emergence of nonstate and transnational groups accordingly has
resulted in adversaries who are more difficult to track and deter than
nation states are and who are more interested in creating catas-
trophic events.
Technology also plays an important role. There are increasing fears
regarding the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
These include concerns about insecure former Soviet nuclear, bio-
logical, and chemical (NBC) weapons and materials or—through
efforts by so-called “rogue states” and such well-funded groups as
