A Homeland Security Model for Assessing US Domestic Threats
Shawn Cupp and Michael G. Spight
Since 9/11, local, state, and federal governments in conjunction with corporate agencies have
conducted a wide variety of risk assessments. These include identifying and assigning the threat
and vulnerability to a number of infrastructures based on potential terrorist attacks. Many of these
assessments are conducted with international or foreign terrorists in mind. Unfortunately, there are
a number of domestic threats that may prove to be just as dangerous. This article proposes a
model to focus attention of viable potential domestic threats. By measuring the intent and
capabilities of domestic threats based on historical evidence of previous incidents, local, state,
federal government, and commercial organizations are able to apply constrained resources to
mitigate the viable potential domestic threats. Metrics are defined and the domestic threat groups
are depicted on a scatter graph. This is the first step in identifying domestic threats in order to
focus critical resources and fiscally constrained assets on mitigating the risk of these threats.
Disclaimer: The views and conclusions expressed in the context of this document are those of the
author developed in the freedom of expression, academic environment of the US Army Command
and General Staff College. They do not reflect the official position of the US Government,
Department of Defense, United States Department of the Army, or the US Army Command and
General Staff College.
Changes in Threat Since 9/11
Currently, many intergovernmental efforts are focused on threats from international terrorist
organizations such as Al Qaeda, Hamas, and Hezbollah. Over the past five years since 9/11, a number of
government institutions and processes changed to meet those threats. Some of the changes included
making the Office of Homeland Security, a cabinet level Department of Homeland Security. Another change
was the issuance of the Homeland Security Presidential Directive – 3 (HSPD-3), which describes the
Homeland Security Advisory system based on threat conditions. This document gave US citizens the now
familiar five threat conditions with corresponding colors. The threat conditions and color constantly change
based on the assessed threat. Originally this system was simple; however, it is not compounded by
assessing various sectors in the US with different levels of threat. For example, currently the US airline
travel is rated Orange for High threat based on the thwarted attacks aimed at UK to US overseas flights in
the summer of 2006. The rest of the US is rated at Yellow of Elevated threat. Those threats are real, but
what methods are used in assessing that threat and applying resources against those threats?
When encountering a problem, it is usually best to consult an expert for some advice or counsel.
Dr. Bruce Hoffman is one such expert in the field of terrorism. In a Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
document, Dr. Bruce Hoffman contends, “as military and government targets increase their protection levels,
softer targets such as economic and commercial targets become more attractive” (Hoffman, 2003).
Risk Assessment Models
Risk assessment models are used to assess the threat to critical infrastructure, military operations,
buildings, unexpected events for insurance purposes, and a number of other areas. The application of
