T
he growing need to protect global shipping routes and the intensification
of maritime territorial conflicts have led to a naval arms buildup around
the world.
1
Perhaps the most-cited example of this new focus on naval power is
the increasing number of countries building or planning new aircraft carriers,
but many analysts are more concerned about the proliferation of modern attack
submarines.
2
Often considered the ultimate weapon of naval warfare, submarines
are versatile platforms able to attack surface ships, conduct antisubmarine war-
fare (ASW), deploy mines, and, as they are increasingly equipped with missiles,
attack land targets.
3
In addition, submarines are also highly capable intelligence-
gathering platforms, able to monitor ship movements over vast distances, cut
undersea communications cables, and insert reconnaissance teams covertly on
hostile shores.
4
Since submarines can operate without prior sea and air control,
they allow a weaker actor means to attack a stronger one. Submarines also create
uncertainty for an opponent, since the presence of an enemy submarine is dif-
ficult to confirm until an attack takes place. Countering a hostile submarine force
is not only difficult but also very time consuming.
5
Given such strong offensive
capabilities, submarines are viewed as especially detrimental to crisis stability.
6
Nevertheless, despite the rapidly increasing number of countries buying
submarines and counter to conventional wisdom, I argue that the threat to in-
ternational security from the current submarine proliferation around the world
may have been exaggerated. In reality, it is very difficult and costly to operate
submarines safely and even more difficult to create and sustain a submarine force
capable of conducting effective combat patrols. Furthermore, the strategic value
of a submarine force in comparison with other defense assets in times of limited
budgets is not always self-evident, and some longtime operators of submarines
Submarine Proliferation and International Security
Jan Joel Andersson
THE RACE TO THE BOTTOM
