ISSUE BRIEF
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: The U.S. Needs a Strategy
Luke Coey and Daniel Kochis
No. 4306 | NOVEMBER 26, 2014
I
n November 2013, the former Ukrainian President,
Viktor Yanukovych, postponed signing an Asso-
ciation Agreement with the European Union after
receiving an ultimatum from Moscow to choose
between closer ties with Europe or Russia. One year
later, Yanukovych is out, a pro-Western government
is in power, Russia has illegally annexed the Crimea,
and the Ukrainian oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk
are in rebellion. A fragile cease-fire remains in place,
although localized fighting is an everyday occur-
rence. The U.S. must continue to back, and if neces-
sary increase, targeted economic sanctions against
Russian and separatist figures, oer non-lethal
assistance to the Ukrainian military, and keep Rus-
sia isolated diplomatically.
Cease-fire and Frozen Conflict
In July, when Russian-backed separatists shot
down flight MH-17, killing almost 300 people, Rus-
sian President Vladimir Putin arrived at a strategic
decision-making point. He could have used the trag-
ic incident as an “o-ramp” to his policy of support-
ing rebel groups in eastern Ukraine, or he could send
in more Russian troops to help advance their cause.
He chose the latter and increased the number of
Russian troops operating in Ukraine to an estimat-
ed 4,000. While Russia denies ever sending forces
inside Ukraine, this claim has been disputed by the
U.S., NATO, and other European countries.
1
In response, the Ukrainian government launched
a major military oensive to retake control of terri-
tories from separatists. The oensive by Ukrainian
forces was initially successful and retook large piec-
es of territory controlled by the Russian-backed sep-
aratists. The military oensive eventually stalled.
With the help of Russian troops, the separatists
began pushing back Ukrainian forces. Consequent-
ly, in September, the government in Kyiv agreed to
a cease-fire—the so-called Minsk agreement—bro-
kered by the Organization for Security and Co-
operation in Europe (OSCE). Although the cease-
fire ocially remains in eect, localized fighting is
the norm. Furthermore, as recently as November,
NATO has confirmed another buildup of Russian
military equipment and troops inside Ukraine.
2
The
latest Russian military buildup is clearly an eort to
consolidate gains in the region, and may constitute
preparations for a renewed oensive.
Recent Political Developments
in Ukraine
Ukrainian parliamentary elections held on Octo-
ber 26 resulted in pro-Western parties winning the
largest number of seats. The pro-Western People’s
Front, led by Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk,
won 22.2 percent of the vote, while Bloc Petro Poro-
shenko, the party led by Poroshenko, the current
president, won 21.8 percent. Voters in the regions
under separatist control, as well as in the annexed
Crimean peninsula, were blocked from voting. As a
result, 27 seats in parliament remain vacant. While
This paper, in its entirety, can be found at
http://report.heritage.org/ib4306
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