Middle East
Program
GULF ANALYSIS PAPER
gulf analysis papers
In conjunction with its Gulf Roundtable series, the CSIS Middle East Program issues periodic policy papers addressing key
economic and security issues in the Gulf region. Launched in April 2007, the Gulf Roundtable series convenes monthly and
assembles a diverse group of regional experts, policymakers, academics, and business leaders seeking to build a greater under-
standing of the complexities of the region and identify opportunities for constructive U.S. engagement. Topics for discussion
include the role of Islamist movements in politics, the war on terror, democratization and the limits of civil society, the strategic
importance of Gulf energy, media trends, trade liberalization, and prospects for regional integration. The roundtable denes
the Gulf as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran and is made possible in part
through the generous support of the Embassy of the United Arab Emirates. ■
The New Energy
Revolution and the Gulf
By Carolyn Barnett
..........................................................
A half century ago, huts lined the water in cities like Doha and Abu Dhabi.
Riyadh and Kuwait were little more than villages. The countries that now make
up the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) were desert backwaters then, but they
were well placed to benet from an impending upheaval.
In the 1960s and 1970s, global energy markets underwent major changes, and
oil-producing governments decisively shifted the rules governing oil earnings
in their own favor. In most cases, they were able to leverage their resources
to boost national power. Since then, sleepy shing towns, trading ports, and
caravan stops in the Gulf have transformed into gleaming cities with subways,
megamalls, and iconic skyscrapers. The GCC countries have become central
players in international security arrangements, trade, and nance—all as a result
of policies and ambitions built on their role in global energy markets. The United
States has put special focus on the Gulf for many decades. This is in part because
the United States replaced the United Kingdom in 1971 as the dominant great
power in the Gulf, as part of its global role as a guarantor of global security. In
addition, as U.S. fuel consumption grew, the United States grew increasingly
tied to global energy markets in which Gulf states were dominant, creating an
even more pointed U.S. interest in Gulf security.
Today, a revolution in energy production is under way in the United States,
one that could lead to a new turning point in energy dynamics globally. In
a reversal of the events a half century ago, U.S. energy demand growth is
attening, and after decades of lower output, U.S. production is soaring, though
the United States remains a net oil importer. The rapid and dramatic growth
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summary
An energy revolution fueled by
the rapidly growing production
of unconventional oil and gas is
under way in the United States
today, but its effects so far on
the Gulf Cooperation Council
(GCC)—which still produces
nearly a quarter of the world’s
oil—have so far been strikingly
limited. Nonetheless, it would
be simplistic to claim that new
North American production will
barely affect the region. The U.S.
boom has a profound strategic
impact on the GCC. It feeds an
existing narrative of a coming
U.S. abandonment of the Gulf and
a need to nd alternatives to U.S.
security partnerships. For the Gulf
states, no ready alternatives are
apparent. In part as a consequence,
the Gulf states are increasingly
proactive in the economics and
politics of the surrounding states,
which has its own impact on U.S.
diplomatic and security policy in
the Middle East. ■
November 2014
