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Jonathan Ablett and
Andrew Erdmann
Strategy, scenarios, and the global
shift in defense power
The art of strategy, in defense as elsewhere,
involves understanding possible futures to inform
present decisions. Change, volatility, and
uncertainty are perennial challenges to the defense
strategist and are likely to increase in the
coming years. Formulating strategy in these
conditions will test planners in the public
and private sectors alike.
To succeed, decision makers should look behind
the headlines of the day to ask the right questions
about what will affect their organization in
the future. This requires considering the deeper
underlying trends that will reshape the
strategic landscape in the years ahead. Foremost
among them is the shift in global economic
power. Although often commented upon by
As the strategic landscape shifts, an economic-scenario approach can help defense
organizations grapple with uncertainty.
economists and pundits, many strategists focused
on defense issues have not fully internalized this
historic shift and its implications.
Here we offer a perspective on how strategists in
defense organizations and aerospace and
defense companies should approach this challenge.
First, we describe how the profound shift in
economic power since the end of the Cold War has
already reshaped the world’s strategic land-
scape, including the distribution of global defense
spending. The potential evolution of these
economic dynamics is fundamental to strategy.
Predicting their future is, of course, impos-
sible. Instead, we offer something more modest
and practical: a new approach to scenario
planning that is rooted in a deep understanding
p u b l i c s e c t o r p r a c t i c e
m c k i n s e y
g l o b a l i n s t i t u t e
APRIL 2013
