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A Techno-Economic Analysis of Asteroid Mining
Andreas M. Hein
a
*, Robert Matheson
b
, Dan Fries
c
a
Initiative for Interstellar Studies, Bone Mill, Charfield, United Kingdom, 31241, Andreas.hein@i4is.org
b
Initiative for Interstellar Studies, Bone Mill, Charfield, United Kingdom, 31241, robmatheson95@gmail.com
c
Initiative for Interstellar Studies, Bone Mill, Charfield, United Kingdom, 31241, dan_fries@web.de
* Corresponding Author
Abstract
Asteroid mining has been proposed as an approach to complement Earth-based supplies of rare earth metals and
supplying resources in space, such as water. However, existing studies on the economic viability of asteroid mining
have remained rather simplistic and do not provide much guidance on which technological improvements would be
needed for increasing its economic viability. This paper develops a techno-economic analysis of asteroid mining with
the objective of providing recommendations for future technology development and performance improvements. Both,
in-space resource provision such as water and return of platinum to Earth are considered. Starting from first principles
of techno-economic analysis, gradually additional economic and technological factors are added to the analysis model.
Applied to mining missions involving spacecraft reuse, learning curve effect, and multiple spacecraft, their economic
viability is assessed. A sensitivity analysis with respect to throughput rate, spacecraft mass, and resource price is
performed. Furthermore, a sample asteroid volatile mining architecture based on small CubeSat-class spacecraft is
presented. It is concluded that key technological drivers for asteroid mining missions are throughput rate, number of
spacecraft per mission, and the rate in which successive missions are conducted.
Keywords: asteroid mining, techno-economic analysis, space economics, platinum
1. Introduction
The exploitation of asteroids, and in particular Near
Earth Asteroids (NEAs) has been repeatedly proposed as
a source of resources for Earth and space [1]–[3]. Ross
[4] distinguishes between metals and volatiles as
resources along with their use in a variety of applications
such as construction, life support systems, and propellant.
In particular, volatiles have received attention for in-
space use, due to their relative ease of extraction. For
example, Calla et al. [5] explored the technological and
economic viability of supplying water from NEAs to cis-
lunar orbit.
Regarding the supply of resources to Earth, only
resources with a high value to mass ratio are interesting,
due to the high cost of returning such material. Therefore,
high-value metals such as rare earth metals and in
particular the subgroup of platinum group metals have
been the subject of mining studies [6]. The supply of rare
earth metals is crucial for many “green technologies”
such as fuel cells, catalyzers, high-capacity batteries, and
solar cells [7]–[9].
Existing research on asteroid mining has mainly
looked into its economic viability [2], [6], [10], [11],
technological feasibility [2], [12]–[17], cartography of
asteroids [18], [19], and legal aspects [20]–[22]. More
recently, environmental arguments for asteroid mining
have been made, in particular with regards to platinum
group metals [23]–[25].
In the following, we will focus on the economic
viability of asteroid mining. Andrews et al. [6] have
analysed the economic viability of a specific asteroid
mining architecture, using Net Present Value (NPV)
analysis. Busch [10] provides an analysis of an asteroid
mining architecture using magnetic sails and high-
efficiency solar cells. Sonter [2] provides a generic cost
analysis framework for asteroid mining, linking
economic parameters to technical parameters. Figures of
merit for comparing asteroid mining architectures are
discussed in Lewis [26], [27]. A key figure of merit is the
Mass Payback ratio (MPBR) [28]. Oxnevad [29]
proposes NPV for going beyond MPBR by including
development cost and cost of capital. Diot and Prohom
provide an overview of various strategic, financial, and
supply chain implications for asteroid mining [30].
Gertsch and Gertsch [31] use return on investment (ROI)
analysis to a sample asteroid mining venture. Craig et al.
[32] provide a year-by-year cash flow analysis for a
mining mission, using the M-type NEA 1986 DA as a
case study. They conclude that a mining venture would
currently be too risky to commercially succeed.
It seems that the NPV model developed in
Sonter [2] is currently the most detailed model which
links economic to technical parameters. Nevertheless, the
model has shortcomings:
• Only a single mining mission is considered;
• Cost of return to Earth surface is omitted;
• Development cost is not considered;
• Focused on impulsive transfers.
