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Iran Building Nuclear Weapons
By David Albright
December 5, 2022
Background
Rather than a traditional nuclear weapons program, Iran threatens the world with a program
ready to produce nuclear weapons “on-demand.” Its readiness program poses a difficult
challenge to the international community and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Due to its past, large-scale nuclear weapons program, called the Amad Plan, Iran has a readiness
program with less need for secret nuclear weapon development activities. Iran has advanced its
nuclear weapons readiness under civilian nuclear and military non-nuclear cover projects. Using
a civilian cover, Iran has in recent years successfully produced highly enriched uranium (HEU)
and near HEU metal.
Understanding the pace of Iran building nuclear weapons matters, in particular, for designing
strategies against Iran moving to construct them.
Findings
Iran is increasingly viewed as a nuclear power, yet it has so far not been subjected to harsh
international and regional penalties.
Iran has multiple pathways to build nuclear weapons: (1) Reviving and completing the Amad
Plan with a capability of serially producing many warheads suitable for ballistic missiles (and
possibly cruise missiles); (2) launching an accelerated effort to achieve a few crude nuclear
weapons; or (3) a combination of both. Iran’s likelier pathway to nuclear weapons is the pursuit
of both an accelerated approach and a revival of the Amad Plan.
The time needed to revive and complete the Amad Plan is estimated as two years, at which point
Iran would have produced its first missile-delivered nuclear warhead and created the
infrastructure for serial warhead production.
An accelerated program, benefiting from earlier Amad work, could produce its first crude
nuclear weapon in six months. Too often, the missile warhead pathway is overemphasized.
A priority is ensuring that Iran is inhibited, or deterred, from deciding to build nuclear weapons.
