14 June 2023
Transnational Organized
Crime in the Gray Zone
The Authoritarian IW Toolbox and
Strategic Competition
By Dr. Cüneyt Gürer
Francesca E. Strat
e era of examining transnational organized crime (TOC) separately from geopolitical discussions is
over. TOC is a signicant destabilizing force for countries and regions across the globe. Additionally,
the connection of TOC groups to state ocials and political gures demonstrates that TOC is part of
a growing interconnected constellation of important issues surrounding war, conict, and states. Illicit
economies conducted by TOC groups have been associated with various regional conicts that also have
global impacts. As irregular warfare (IW) becomes the new normal of interstate conict, TOC groups
are becoming useful and willing tools for authoritarian states in the new era of strategic competition.
TOC-state interaction is not a new concept, but the nature of the relationship and functions of criminal
groups are being redened to match the new priorities of the contemporary security environment.
Traditional discussions on organized crime (OC) have typically covered two main orientations and
functions of OC groups: organized crime as a hierarchical and mostly local threat (TOC 1.0); and
organized crime at the global level, exploiting globalization’s advancements and operating with less
hierarchical and more adaptive network structures (TOC 2.0). e adaptability of criminal groups to
new environments is usually due to their exible network-style organizations, which are opportunistic,
independent, and nancially driven. In times of crisis, OC groups adapt to new circumstances and have
the capacity to quickly react to sudden changes in their environment, exploiting even
the most delicate situations. A recent narcotics seizure by the Dutch police in a truck
that was part of the convoy carrying relief aid to earthquake victims in Turkey is a
clear example of organized crime groups using every opportunity to continue their
business.
Both static hierarchical type and more exible, network-style versions of organized
crime groups exist at the global level, and their operations consist of a variety of
illicit actions such as drug smuggling, human tracking, money laundering, wildlife
tracking, and more. However, it is time for democratic states to address TOC from
a new perspective and start examining the potential advantages that these groups
present to the authoritarian states in the strategic competition context (TOC 3.0).
is analysis highlights the role of transnational organized crime (TOC) as a tool for
