Received: 6 April 2021 Revised: 21 November 2021 Accepted: 6 May 2022
DOI: 10.1002/sys.21624
REGULAR ARTICLE
Conceptual model for capability planning in a military context –
A systems thinking approach
Jouni Koivisto
1,2
Risto Ritala
2
Matti Vilkko
2
1
Finnish Defence Research Agency, Riihimäki,
Finland
2
Automation Technology and Mechanical
Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere,
Finland
Correspondence
Jouni Koivisto, Finnish Defence Research
Agency, FI-11311 Riihimäki, Finland.
Email: jouni.koivisto@mil.fi
Funding information
Maanpuolustuksen kannatussäätiö MPKS
Abstract
During recent decades, planning defense systems have evolved into capability-based
planning (CBP) processes. This paper seeks to answer two questions: firstly, how to
express a complex, real-world capability requirement; and secondly, how to assess if
a system with interacting elements fulfills this requirement. We propose that both a
capability need and the solution fulfilling it are expressed with a consistent set of mod-
els in a traceable manner. The models integrate current capability models, specific to
planning level and capability viewpoint, with systems thinking approach. Our concep-
tual model defines the defense system in its environment, our data model defines and
organizes the CBP terms, and our class diagram defines the CBP planning elements. We
illustrate the approach by giving an example of capability parametrization and com-
pare it both with the DODAF capability view and with the generic CBP process. Our
data model describes how capabilities are degraded in action and extends the approach
toward capability dynamics. The quantitative capability definition aims to support
efforts to solve for real world interacting subsystems that combined implement the
required capability.
KEYWORDS
capability-based planning, capability model, systems thinking
1 INTRODUCTION
Capability as a defense planning paradigm and capability-based plan-
ning (CBP) have evolved since the Cold War. The North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO)
1
and US Department of Defense (DoD)
2
consider
a capability-based approach as a necessity to be able to undertake an
evolving variety of operations, such as peacekeeping or peace enforce-
ment operations, non-nation threats, and asymmetric warfare after the
Cold War threat-based approach. In CBP, the capabilities are based
on the manner in which future opponents may operate rather than
based on certain opponents, allies, or geographical locations. Further-
more, CBP assesses solutions that fulfill a particular capability need.
3,4
This approach improves the prospect of finding more cost-effective
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided
the original work is properly cited.
© 2022 The Authors. Systems Engineering published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.
ways to produce a capability rather than to rely on conventional and
often obvious solutions. The CBP approach has been widely applied in
NATO countries, but the practice of its application varies.
4
The US DoD
Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS),
5
the
Finnish Defence Forces Strategic Planning,
6
and the NATO Defence
Planning Process (NDPP)
1
are examples of CBP processes. Common
to all CBP approaches is that they distinguish between the military
force design as required military effects and the solution for the
implementation as military forces, systems, etc.
Not only is the CBP process applied differently but also the def-
inition of “capability” varies. Depending on the source, capability
may refer to the military objectives, the military tasks needed to
achieve these objectives, the means of conducting these tasks,
7,8
or the
Systems Engineering. 2022;25:457–474. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/sys 457
