THE MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA are projected
to become hotter and drier, with reduced access to fresh water,
resulting from climate change. e leadership of U.S. Central
Command (CENTCOM) is concerned that these changes could
lead to greater conict in its area of responsibility (AOR).
CENTCOM leaders asked the RAND Corporation to help them
better understand the role that a changing climate plays in regional
stability, the eects of climate change on human systems, and
how to mitigate potential threats that could arise from climate
change. For example, within the CENTCOM AOR, extreme
temperatures and water scarcity during the summer months
contributed to signicant civil unrest in Basra, Iraq, from 2018 to
2022. Simmering disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance
Dam could escalate fresh water competition between Egypt and
Ethiopia into conict.
ese impacts from climate hazards are anticipated to
continue to spill over into the security environment,
changing the character of intrastate conict in the region and
creating demand for stabilization operations, noncombatant
evacuation operations, and humanitarian assistance and
disaster relief (HADR). CENTCOM’s interest in addressing
climate stress in the AOR goes beyond preventing and
responding to conict. Adapting to climate change also
presents CENTCOM with an opportunity to build partner
resilience to climate hazards, with the ancillary benet of
strengthening bonds within the CENTCOM coalition.
Key Findings
• Nearly the enre U.S. Central Command
(CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR) faces
the compounding eects of accelerang high
temperatures, drought, and long-term dryness.
• Causal pathways from climate events to
armed conict are mulstep processes
in which climate hazards compound
governance and socioeconomic grievances.
• According to modeling by RAND Corporaon
researchers, the CENTCOM AOR will experience
substanal conict in the coming half century.
However, that modeling might be underesmang
the impact of climate variables on conict.
• China and Russia have climate-related tools to
leverage in relaonships with regional countries.
• Because the causal pathways from climate
hazards to conict revolve around polical and
economic concerns, CENTCOM will likely play a
supporng role to interagency partners.
• Supporng partner resilience to climate
hazards will strengthen partnerships within the
CENTCOM coalion and migate conict risk.
Planning for an
Uncertain Future
WHAT CLIMATE-RELATED CONFLICT COULD
MEAN FOR U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND
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