Anticipating Chinese Reactions to
U.S. Posture Enhancements
Kristen Gunness, Bryan Frederick, Timothy R. Heath, Emily Ellinger, Christian Curriden,
Nathan Chandler, Bonny Lin, James Benkowski, Bryan Rooney, Cortez A. Cooper III,
Cristina L. Garafola, Paul Orner, Karl P. Mueller, Jeffrey W. Hornung, Erik E. Mueller
www.rand.org/t/RRA1581-1
e dramatic increase in Chinese power and military capabilities over the past two
decades has prompted calls for U.S. policymakers, and the U.S. Department of Defense
in particular, to reevaluate their approach to the Indo-Pacic region, including changes
to U.S. military posture. is report provides a framework of key factors that U.S.
policymakers should consider in assessing how China may react to shifting U.S. posture
in the region.
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RESEARCH QUESTIONS
• What are the key factors that U.S. policymakers and military planners should consider when assessing
how China is likely to react to planned or proposed U.S. posture enhancements in the Indo-Pacic
region?
• How do U.S. posture enhancements have the potential to aect those key factors?
• What are the ways in which U.S. posture enhancements may aect Chinese perceptions and thinking
through these key factors, and how might these factors motivate China to pursue dierent responses?
KEY FINDINGS
• China assumes that most U.S. military activities in the region are hostile to China.
• China’s level of concern for a posture enhancement does not directly correlate with the aggressiveness
of its responses.
• U.S. posture enhancements or activities that pose acute concerns for China are more likely to trigger
consequential changes in longer-term PRC policies.
• e bilateral nature of U.S. alliance relationships in the region may limit whether U.S. posture
enhancements in a particular country would deter China from more aggressive behavior elsewhere in
the region. e deterrence value of the posture enhancement may depend on whether China believes
that the host nation will allow the United States to employ the posture or capabilities in a regional
conict.
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C O R P O R A T I O N
