BACKGROUNDER
No. 3809 | JANUARY 24, 2024
CENTER FOR ENERGY, CLIMATE, AND ENVIRONMENT
This paper, in its entirety, can be found at https://report.heritage.org/bg3809
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Global Warming: Observations
vs. Climate Models
Roy W. Spencer, PhD
The observed rate of global warming over
the past 50 years has been weaker than
that predicted by almost all computerized
climate models.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Climate models that guide energy policy
do not even conserve energy, a necessary
condition for any physically based model
of the climate system.
Public policy should be based on climate
observations—which are rather unremark-
able—rather than climate models that
exaggerate climate impacts.
A
verage warming of the climate system
over the past five decades has been widely
attributed to greenhouse gas emissions—
primarily carbon dioxide (CO
2
)—from the burning
of fossil fuels. This belief has led to calls for greatly
reducing humanity’s reliance on such fuels and a
transition to “renewable” energy sources such as
wind power and solar energy.
For the purposes of guiding public policy and for
adaptation to any climate change that occurs, it is
necessary to understand the claims of global warm-
ing science as promoted by the United Nations
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC).
1
When it comes to increases in global aver-
age temperature since the 1970s, three questions
are pertinent:
