n FFRDC operated by the RAND Corporation under contract with DHS
OPERAT IONAL ANALYSIS CENTER
RESEARCH REPORT
DANIEL M. GERSTEIN, ERIN N. LEIDY
Emerging
Technology and
Risk Analysis
Unmanned Aerial Systems Intelligent
Swarm Technology
U
nmanned aerial systems (UASs)
or drone technologies, both
individual systems and swarms
of UASs, have proliferated over
the past 25 years for a wide variety of
applications. As a result, this technol-
ogy and the ability to employ these UAS
capabilities represent both a current and
a growing threat as the technology con-
tinues to mature.
For this assessment, we delineate
drone swarm technology into three cat-
egories: (1)multioperator-coordinated
groups of individual drones; (2) drones
that have been programmed in a coor-
dinated manner to fly individually, in
a leader-follower configuration, or in
multidrone formations with a human
operator controlling multiple drones; and
(3)intelligent drone swarms that can
communicate among individual drones
and respond to external stimuli. The first
two categories represent what we call in
this assessment surrogate swarm tech-
nology, while the third category has been
designated intelligent swarm technology.
1
KEY FINDINGS
■ Unmanned aerial systems (UASs), or drone technologies, for both
individual systems and for surrogate swarms represent a current
threat and, in the case of intelligent swarms, a growing threat
given continued advances in range, payload, and power as UAS
technology continues to mature.
■ The maturing of intelligent swarms will come at the convergence
of multiple technologies, including artificial intelligence, big data,
Internet of Things, and fifth-generation cellular (5G), which will
combine to support the development and employment of these
capabilities.
■ The risks of the illicit use of intelligent swarms will continue to
grow over time; however, attacks will likely remain localized, with
the potential for impacts to be felt regionally in some cases, such
as cyber or electromagnetic attacks against the electrical grid.
This would mean the consequences are likely to remain moderate
because they are not likely to have a national impact.
■ Vulnerabilities and consequences will likely be challenging to
mitigate for homeland security defenders (e.g., law enforce-
ment officers, first responders, planners, and workers in critical
infrastructure sectors), because fielding detection systems and
countermeasures across the range of potential targets could be
extremely costly.
