25
The Iranian Cyber Threat / Chuck Freilich
Part 2:
Iran’s Cyber Strategy, Institutions, and Capabilities
In the early 2010s, two primary factors led Iran to rapidly develop its heretofore
limited cyber capabilities. The rst was the effective use of the internet by
the Iranian opposition to foment and sustain the mass demonstrations
following the rigged presidential elections in 2009. The regime ultimately
succeeded in suppressing the protests but also gained a healthy appreciation
of the threat that the new technology posed to its stature and stability.
21
The
second factor was the dramatic Stuxnet attack against Iran’s nuclear program
in 2010, reportedly a joint US–Israeli cyber sabotage operation. Stuxnet, the
rst known case of a cyberattack that caused physical damage, demonstrated
Iran’s extreme vulnerability and led to a severe national shock. In response,
Iran rapidly accelerated the development of its then only nascent cyber
capabilities.
22
Experts concur that Iran’s cyber capabilities have progressed considerably
ever since but they disagree on its actual level of sophistication. Some believe
that Iran has not developed a sophisticated cybersecurity ecosystem, suffers
from a severe brain drain, and has not achieved the level of professionalism
required of an advanced actor. These experts believe that important American,
European, and Israeli targets are defended at a level that exceeds Iran’s
21 Collin Anderson and Karim Sadjadpour,
Iran’s Cyber Threat: Espionage, Sabotage and
Revenge
(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2018), 10–11; Gabi Siboni and
Sami Kronenfeld, “Iran and Cyberspace Warfare,” in
Cyberspace and National Security
– Selected Articles
, ed. Gabi Siboni (Tel Aviv: Institute for National Security Studies,
2013), 81–103; Kristina Kausch and Lior Tabansky, “Cybered Conict in the Middle East,”
Mediterranean Dialogue Series No. 15 (Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, 2018), 9; Gabi Siboni,
Léa Abramski, and Gal Sapir, “Iran’s Activity in Cyberspace: Identifying Patterns and
Understanding the Strategy,”
Cyber, Intelligence and Security
4, no. 1 (2020): 22.
22 Sanger,
The Perfect Weapon,
46–49; Segal,
Hacked World Order
, 5; Sam Jones, “Cyber
Warfare: Iran Opens a New Front,”
Financial Times
, April 26, 2016; Siboni and Kronenfeld,
“Iran and Cyberspace Warfare.”
