JANUARY 2025
Defending the North Amid
Rising Geopolitical Tensions
As the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches, Arctic countries
have fully awoken to a new security paradigm in the region. With Sweden and Finland
completing their NATO accession process in 2024, all seven non-Russian Arctic countries
have emerged clear-eyed about the security threat posed by the Kremlin. e increasing
frequency of interference with critical infrastructure across Northern Europe—combined
with Europe’s mostly timid response—highlights that Arctic states are far from fully ready
to operate in this new security environment.
In this edition of Northern Connections, experts examine three issues that will heavily influ-
ence the trajectory of the region’s security landscape. Collectively, the three articles illustrate
the novel challenges facing a region that was long characterized by Arctic exceptionalism—
the common understanding that unwritten rules, beliefs, and history protected the region
from great power rivalry. For one, U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s unconventional ap-
proach to international diplomacy is putting pressure on the internal cohesion among Arctic
NATO states. Trump’s notion that U.S. ownership and control of Greenland is “an absolute
necessity” for national security purposes is straining the bilateral relationship between the
United States and Denmark, and the delicate relationship within the Kingdom of Denmark
between Denmark and Greenland. Moreover, the increasing alignment of Russia and other
revanchist powers has cast a shadow over the Arctic, as Sino-Russian cooperation has en-
abled China to expand on its limited foothold in the region. Lastly, Sweden’s and Finland’s
accession into NATO will oer both opportunities and challenges in furthering the already
robust defense integration among the four Nordic countries.
In the first article, Marc Jacobsen from the Royal Danish Defence College examines Green-
land’s 2024 foreign, security, and defense policy in the context of shifting Arctic security
dynamics. He argues that increased international interest in the territory—particularly
overtures from President-elect Trump—has positioned Greenland favorably in its quest for
both short-term economic and political gains and its longer-term ambitions for indepen-
dence from Denmark as a sovereign nation.
In the second article, Rebekka Åsnes Sagild from the Norwegian Institute for Defence
Studies at the Norwegian Defence University College evaluates the state of Sino-Russian
cooperation in the European Arctic from China’s perspective. She argues that as China’s
THE LILLAN AND ROBERT D. STUART JR. CENTER
IN EURO-ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN EUROPEAN STUDIES
NORTHERN
CONNECTIONS
