FEBRUARY 2025
The Transatlantic Alliance
in the Age of Trump
The Coming Collisions
By Max Bergmann
This report is Part 1 in a two-part series titled “The Transatlantic Alliance in the Age of Trump.” Part 1
previews the coming collisions in transatlantic relations and whether a “grand bargain” between the United
States and Europe to avoid conict is plausible. It will examine the various policy areas where clashes are
likely, examining NATO, Ukraine, technoloy, trade, climate, international organizations, and China policy.
It will look at why collisions in each policy area are possible, how a dispute could escalate, and potential
risks facing both sides. Part 2 will explore how the European political project may evolve as a result of the
collisions discussed in Part 1.
Introduction
The United States and Europe are on a collision course that will fundamentally alter and transform
transatlantic relations. It is not just one issue that will trigger a clash but seemingly every issue. From
NATO to Ukraine, climate to trade, tech regulations to China, the United States and Europe will likely
clash, repeatedly and continuously. The impact of these collisions will be transformative for transatlantic
relations and will reshape the transatlantic alliance. Europe is now staring at the beginning of a new
post-American age. Since the end of World War II, Europe has been inextricably tied to the United States.
While there have occasionally been rifts in the transatlantic fabric, these were always mendable. But the
clashes that are coming may not be, and they may forever change the nature of transatlantic relations.
Europe is now reckoning with a potential future where it may have to chart its own course.
At the core of the tension is that Europe and the United States under Donald Trump now have very
dierent views of the transatlantic alliance and of the world. For Europe, relations with the United States
have served as Europe’s North Star and the foundation of Europe’s foreign policy, and were treated with
the utmost importance. Europe, today, desperately wants to preserve the alliance as it currently exists and
ensure the United States’ continued place as the guarantor of European security. For the United States,
