CSIS:美国的不自由转向重新制定了与中国的潜在协议(2025) 9页

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时间:2025-03-14

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MARCH 2025
The United States’ Illiberal
Turn Recasts a Potential
Deal with China
By Scott Kennedy
S
everal weeks into the new Trump administration, the world is still trying to gure out what
direction U.S.-China relations will ultimately follow in the coming months and years. The
United States has now imposed taris twice on China, totaling 20 percent, for what it argues is
insucient help from Beijing in stemming fentanyl-related production and trade. On both occasions,
within minutes, China responded with counter-sanctions, a combination of taris, export controls,
trade bans, blacklist additions, and investigations. Some still believe a deal, either a grand bargain
or something more modest that nevertheless stabilizes ties, is still possible, while others believe
escalation is the more likely outcome.
The broader strategic context of bilateral ties, either cooperative or conictual, is just as important,
particularly for market actors and the countries’ two economies. The Trump administration is in the
process of fundamentally changing key characteristics of U.S. foreign policy and domestic governance in
a much more illiberal direction. Those alterations to U.S. politics and the country’s role in the world put
U.S.-China relations in an entirely new light regardless of whether Washington and Beijing can manage
their dierences. In such a new world, although tense U.S.-China relations would be highly problematic
and dangerous, stability in ocial U.S.-China relations would not necessarily be a boon for global peace
and prosperity either.
A Deal Is Possible . . .
There are multiple reasons why a deal, even with the early exchanges of penalties, may still be possible.
The rst and most important is that both sides see an upside in a deal. President Trump has never
described China as a threat; he has, in fact, repeatedly praised Xi Jinping’s leadership. A deal would
oer President Trump the opportunity to claim he re-righted the economic relationship, reduced
the trade decit, and boosted domestic manufacturing and jobs. He also wants to avoid inducing
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本文是美国战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)高级顾问兼中国商业与经济受托人主席斯科特·肯尼迪的分析文章,探讨了特朗普政府时期美中关系走向及潜在交易的可能性。 1. **达成协议仍有可能** - **双方均有动力**:特朗普可借协议改善经济关系、减少贸易逆差、推动国内制造业与就业,同时避免通胀与股市低迷;习近平则可借协议稳定中国与全球对中美商业关系的预期,避免彻底脱钩,集中精力应对国内挑战并巩固政治主导地位。 - **双方具备空间**:特朗普能超越政府内部及国会的负面声音,推行自身战略;新

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