JANUARY 2019
Notes: Unless this report indicates otherwise, all of the years referred to are federal scal years, which run from October 1 to
September 30and are designated by the calendar year in which they end. Numbers in the text and tables may not add up to totals
because of rounding. In this report, “cost” refers to budget authority,the amount that would need to be appropriated to imple-
mentthe Administration’s plans.
Projected Costs of U.S. Nuclear Forces,
2019 to 2028
e Congressional Budget Oce is required by law to
project the 10-year costs of nuclear forcesevery two
years. is report contains CBO’s projections for the
period from 2019 to 2028.
•
If carried out, the plans for nuclear forces delineated
inthe Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) and the
Departmentof Energy’s (DOE’s) scal year2019
budget requests would cost a total of $494 billion
over the 2019–2028 period, for an average of just
under $50billion a year,CBO estimates.
•
e current 10-year total is 23 percent higher than
CBO’s 2017 estimate of the10-year costs of nuclear
forces, $400billion over the2017–2026 period.
•
About $51 billion (or 55 percent) of the $94 billion
increase in that total arises because the 10-year period
covered by the current estimate begins and ends
two years later than the period covered by the 2017
estimate. us, the period now includes two later
(and more expensive) years of development in nuclear
modernization programs. Also, costs in those two
later years reect 10years of economywide ination
relative to the two years that drop out of the previous
10-year projection; that factor (in the absence of any
changes to programs) accounts for about one-fourth
of the $51 billion increase.
•
About $37 billion (or 39 percent) of the $94 bil-
lion increase is projected to occur from 2019 to
2026—the eight years included in both this esti-
mate and the 2017 estimate. at increase stems
mainly from new modernization programs and
weapons and more concrete plans for nuclear
command-and-control systems.
1
Background
Nuclear weapons have been an important component of
U.S. national security since they were developed during
World War II. During the Cold War, nuclear forces
were central to U.S. defense policy, and a large arsenal
was built. Since that time, nuclear forces have gured
less prominently in defense policy than conventional
forces have, and the United States has not built any new
nuclear weapons or delivery systems for many years.
e nation’s current nuclear forces are reaching the
end of their service life. ose forces consist of subma-
rines that launch ballistic missiles (SSBNs), land-based
intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), long-range
bomber aircraft, shorter-range tactical aircraft carrying
bombs, and the nuclear warheads that those delivery
systems carry. Over the next two decades, essentially all
of those components of nuclear forces will have to be
refurbished or replaced with new systems if the United
States is to continue elding those capabilities.
1. e remaining 6 percent of the $94 billion increase is in CBO’s
estimate of likely cost growth beyond budgeted amounts.
