Winter 2008-09 27
Crafting Strategy in an Age
of Transition
SHAWN BRIMLEY
© Shawn Brimley 2009
T
he United States is at a transition point nearly unparalleled in its history.
Years of war abroad have severely strained America’s military, and the
ongoing economic crisis will force ever-greater constraints on all forms of
discretionary spending. Rising regional powers, energy scarcity, climate
change, and failing states are some of the myriad variables that will combine
to form a daunting set of strategic challenges for the Obama Administration.
Not since the late 1940s has America’s defense community faced challenges
of such size and scope. Unlike the immediate aftermath of the strategic shocks
of Pearl Harbor and 9/11—when the imperatives of war demanded a focus on
near-term requirements—the years following such fundamental disruptions
to America’s strategic context offer valuable opportunities and time to
reect on what has changed, reset defense priorities, and renew US strategy
for the long term. Then as now, as the fog of uncertainty associated with the
emergence of a new geostrategic era begins to dissipate, the contours of the
strategic environment can be more clearly perceived.
As the fog lifts it becomes apparent that despite valiant efforts and
good intentions, America suffers from strategic distraction, dislocation, and
near-exhaustion. The United States is, as Army Chief of Staff General
George Casey and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Michael Mullen
often observe, “out of balance.” America’s defense posture today assumes far
more strategic risk than is prudent and rests on a shifting global foundation
certain to exacerbate the constraints and risks to US power and prestige.
The defense community is not as prepared as it should be for the challenges
of today and tomorrow—it can, and must, do better.
